Indiana Football Favored Over Penn State By Significant Margin

Much has changed since the beginning of the season regarding the outlook of this year's matchup between Indiana and Penn State. After opening the year as the nation's No. 2 team, the Nittany Lions have fallen out of the rankings with a 3-5 record, and the 9-0 Hoosiers have taken their spot as a perceived title contender.

Going into Saturday's Noon ET kickoff at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Penn. on FOX, No. 2 Indiana is favored by 15.5 points, according to the Draft Kings Sportsbook on Monday, and the over/under is 49.5 points. The Hoosiers' moneyline odds are -800, while the Nittany Lions are +550 underdogs on the moneyline.

Penn State entered the year with national championship aspirations, but instead they've gone 0-5 in Big Ten play. The school fired head coach James Franklin after falling at home to Northwestern, a loss that came with a season-ending ankle injury to star quarterback Drew Allar.

Indiana Football — Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) celebrates with running back Roman Hemby (1) after scoring a touchdown against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium. | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Indiana's results against the spread in 2025

Aug. 30: No. 20 Indiana defeated Old Dominion 27-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (41) went under the 53.5-point line. Record: 1-0
Sept. 6: No. 23 Indiana defeated Kennesaw State 56-9 at home as a 35.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (65) went over the 51.5-point line. Record: 2-0
Sept. 12: No. 22 Indiana defeated Indiana State 73-0 at home as a 46.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (73) went over the 60.5-point line. Record: 3-0
Sept. 20: No. 19 Indiana defeated No. 9 Illinois 63-10 at home as a seven-point favorite (covered). The point total (73) went over the 51.5 point line. Record: 4-0
Sept. 27: No. 11 Indiana defeated Iowa 20-15 on the road as a 9.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (35) went under the 47.5-point line. Record: 5-0
Oct. 11: No. 7 Indiana defeated No. 3 Oregon 30-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog (covered). The point total (50) went under the 51.5-point line. Record: 6-0
Oct. 18: No. 3 Indiana defeated Michigan State 38-13 at home as a 26.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (51) went over the 48.5-point line. Record: 7-0
Oct. 25: No. 2 Indiana defeated UCLA 56-6 at home as a 26.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (62) went over the 53.5-point line. Record: 8-0
Nov. 1: No. 2 Indiana defeated Maryland 55-10 on the road as a 21.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (65) went over the 51.5-point line. Record: 9-0.

The Hoosiers are 6-3 against the spread, and the point total has gone over in six of nine games. Head coach Curt Cignetti's group has been especially dominant of late, winning their last two games by 95 combined points over UCLA and Maryland. Saturday's blowout win over the Terrapins was a balanced effort, with seven players scoring a touchdown.

Indiana put together another strong defensive performance, too, holding Maryland to 37 rushing yards and intercepting quarterback Malik Washington twice. They did so without All-American linebacker Aiden Fisher, who didn't play due to injury.

On the other side, Penn State is coming off a 38-14 loss at No. 1 Ohio State. Following Allar's injury, the Nittany Lions have turned to backup quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, who went 19-for-28 with 145 yards and an interception against the Buckeyes. Penn State has a talented running back duo with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who've combined for 17 touchdowns.

Ethan Grunkemeyer Penn State Football — Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) looks to throw against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State's results against the spread in 2025

Aug. 30: No. 2 Penn State defeated Nevada 46-11 at home as a 42.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (57) went over the 54.5-point line. Record: 1-0.
Sept. 6: No. 2 Penn State defeated FIU 34-0 at home as a 41.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (34) went under the 53.5-point line. Record: 2-0.
Sept. 13: No. 2 Penn State defeated Villanova 52-6 at home as a 46.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (58) went over the 57.5-point line. Record: 3-0.
Sept. 27: No. 3 Penn State lost 30-24 to No. 6 Oregon at home as a 4.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (54) went over the 52.5-point line. Record: 3-1.
Oct. 4: No. 7 Penn State lost 42-37 to UCLA on the road as a 24.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (79) went over the 48.5-point line. Record: 3-2.
Oct. 11: Penn State lost 22-21 to Northwestern at home as a 20.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (43) went under the 46.5-point line. Record: 3-3.
Oct. 18: Penn State lost 25-24 to Iowa on the road as a 3.5-point underdog (covered). The point total (49) went over the 41.5-point line. Record: 3-4.
Nov. 1: Penn State lost 38-14 to No. 1 Ohio State as a 17.5-point underdog (did not cover). The point total (52) went over the 44.5-point line. Record: 3-5.

The Nittany Lions are 1-7 against the spread, and the over has hit in six of eight games.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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