Can Josh Hoover Follow Fernando Mendoza? History Says It Won't Be Easy

The question has been asked before, and it'll be asked again.

What does it mean to replace a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback?

It depends on when you ask that question, as well as who you ask that question to. For today, let's ask that question for Indiana as it relates to Josh Hoover and the 21st century history that he's up against.

Replacing a College Football Legend Is Rarely a Smooth Transition

I know what you're thinking. But what about Kyler Murray? Didn't he win a Heisman Trophy a year after replacing 2017 Heisman winner Baker Mayfield? Indeed he did. Good memory.

The problem is that if you look at the rest of that sample size, it's clear that Murray is the outlier.

In the 21st century, we've seen 21 instances of a quarterback winning the Heisman, including most recently, Fernando Mendoza.

Obviously, we don't know how Hoover will perform filling Mendoza's shoes as his successor, so our sample size is 20 instances of Heisman quarterback successors (that still includes the successors who had to wait another year because guys like Jameis Winston and Lamar Jackson returned to school).

Only seven Heisman successors at quarterback earned all-conference honors in that first season after taking over as QB1.

Five of those instances came from USC and Oklahoma with the lone exceptions being Todd Boeckman earning All-Big Ten honors post-Troy Smith in 2007 and Jalen Milroe earning All-SEC honors post-Bryce Young in 2023.

That's essentially one out of every three Heisman successors at quarterback who stepped in and played at a high level. At least that's the case in the 21st century.

But Hoover's situation is certainly unique compared to those others

Why? Because even Jalen Hurts didn't have three years of starting experience at a Power Conference school when he took over for Kyler Murray en route to Heisman runner-up honors.

In the transfer portal era, Hoover's situation figures to become more of the norm.

He's actually the first former transfer to take over for a Heisman-winning quarterback since that Murray-to-Hurts transition in Norman back in 2019. Myles Brennan, Jalen Milroe, Miller Moss and Garrett Nussmeier were all home-grown guys who became first-time starters after replacing Heisman winners.

Does that matter? It should.

A guy with 1,183 career pass attempts and nearly 10,000 career passing yards at the Power Conference level is more experienced than any of his fellow 21st-century Heisman successors.

For that reason, he deserves to be held to a higher standard than a typical Heisman replacement.

Hoover transferred to Indiana in hopes of becoming the third consecutive prolific quarterback of the Curt Cignetti era. Getting to work with him and Mike Shanahan behind what could be the best offensive line in the sport should give Hoover an incredibly high floor, even if those turnover-prone ways aren't completely in his past yet.

Ergo, we should hold him to that All-Big Ten standard.

Kurtis Rourke got there in 2024, and Mendoza had that honor all but locked up before the calendar turned to November in 2025. The next hand-picked guy failing to do so would be considered a disappointment.

Let's just be fair with the Mendoza-Hoover side-by-sides

It's unrealistic to think that Hoover will match Mendoza's 199.1 QB rating in the second half/overtime for the simple fact that the only qualified (min. 100 such pass attempts) Power Conference quarterback with a better mark in the 2020s was fellow Heisman winner Jayden Daniels.

And no, it's not realistic to project that he'll match Mendoza's five games in which he had more touchdown passes than incompletions (that's still such an absurd feat).

But Hoover being an all-conference quarterback and finishing top-10 in the Heisman voting is in play after both Rourke and Mendoza checked those boxes.

Among the 21st-century Heisman successors, the lone other examples of that happening the following season were Leinart in 2003 (6th in Heisman voting), Murray in 2018 (1st), Hurts in 2019 (2nd) and Milroe in 2023 (6th).

Hoover has everything working in his favor to become the fifth quarterback to join that club in the 21st century. If he does, IU's encore season will live up to its lofty preseason billing.

But if IU fans find themselves filling time on fall Saturdays by watching 2025 Mendoza highlights, an unfamiliar feeling will be prevalent in Bloomington.

That is, the shoes to fill were too big.

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