Why Indiana Has a Better Shot to Win the Big Ten than Media Pick Ohio State

When the annual unofficial Big Ten media poll came out, I was a touch surprised.

On the surface, there's nothing surprising about the fact that Ohio State was picked to win the conference. We're talking about a team that has had nothing but top-10 finishes in the Playoff era. The last time that the Buckeyes lost three games, the idea of a program getting decimated because of free tattoos wasn't so crazy.

Oh, and just in case I wasn't kind enough to Ryan Day, Ohio State has appeared in the top 3 of the Playoff Poll in each of the seven seasons that he's been a head coach.

But yeah, look beneath the surface of this media poll.

Ohio State edges Oregon in Big Ten Preseason Poll conducted by The Bill and Doug Show. 46 voters from around the conference.
Story: https://t.co/GUeqU0f52y
VIdeo breakdown: https://t.co/K9uYSqd5nN pic.twitter.com/gCbazzvVi5
— Doug Lesmerises (@DougLesmerises) July 27, 2026

So we're just gonna ignore the elephant in the room here?

As in, Ohio State's schedule is significantly tougher than Indiana's. The oddsmakers have also chosen to ignore that based on the fact that the Buckeyes are +180 to win the Big Ten compared to +310 for Indiana (via FanDuel).

Make of that what you will. What I make of it is that the idea of picking IU to win the conference is still a bit too taboo, and rolling with the Buckeyes is a safer consensus opinion.

But for now, let's pretend that IU is indeed in for at least some regression after the whole "first 16-0 team since 1894 Yale" thing that allowed Cignetti to clap back at the SEC.

Let's instead acknowledge that the Buckeyes have an over/under of 9.5 regular-season wins with arguably the toughest schedule in the sport. You can acknowledge that to be true even if you believe that the SEC has tougher "bottom of the barrell" games than Ohio State.

Since we're just talking about the path to a Big Ten Championship, ignore the Texas game. It's part of that 9.5 number, but it's not part of that gauntlet in conference play.

Road trips at Iowa, Indiana and USC will come against a trio of teams that have a combined regular-season over/under of 26.5 wins.

You'll tell me that's just projecting. I'll tell you that's traveling to face three teams who finished in the AP Top 25 and are a combined 39-5 at home the last two seasons, which is nothing to scoff at.

Mind you, that's not including the Buckeyes hosting Oregon and Michigan, both of whom have wins against Day's squad in the last two years.

To recap, that's five Big Ten games in which Ohio State could realistically be on the ropes.

Now do that same exercise for Indiana. You'll get to three games, not five.

The three toughest road games are at Nebraska, Michigan and Washington. The Huskers are searching for their first win vs. a ranked foe since the Barack Obama administration, so focus on those other two road matchups.

Michigan and Washington are 22-5 at home over the last two years. To look past those road trips would be foolish, even for an IU coaching staff that's 27-2 overall with both losses coming to national championship participants in 2024.

Those two, plus Ohio State coming to Bloomington, are how we get to three potential "on the ropes" games.

As for that Ohio State-Indiana matchup ...

It's in Bloomington. As in, the place where Cignetti is undefeated having won all but one game (2024 vs. Michigan) by at least two touchdowns. Has IU had a home game against a team as good as this Julian Sayin-led Ohio State squad is? Probably not.

It's also worth noting that IU returns multiple preseason All-Americans from a front seven that held Ohio State to 26 carries for 58 yards in the Big Ten Championship.

Is it a new season? Yes. Cignetti would be the first to acknowledge that.

Plenty of Buckeye fans would point to the addition of Arthur Smith as a sure-fire upgrade over last year's first-time play-caller Brian Hartline, who got the head coaching job at USF amidst a disappointing end to Ohio State's 2025 campaign. Let's wait and see on that.

Just because Matt Patricia's transition from the NFL to college worked wonders with a historically great Ohio State defense doesn't mean that Smith will have battle-tested Big Ten defenses like Indiana's on their heels. That's perhaps an unpopular opinion in the preseason, I know.

I also know that I've got at least one question about Ohio State's coordinator situation, and I have none about Indiana running it back with the Broyles Award winner (Bryant Haines) and Mike Shanahan, AKA the guy who called plays for an offense that averaged 41.6 points per game.

You get it. At the very least, that game is a coin flip, and it's Ohio State who has to travel for it.

But here's the part that nobody wants to say out loud about Ohio State

Should I whisper it? Fine.

(Ohio State hasn't won a Big Ten Championship since 2020, and remember that only happened because the COVID-shortened season threw all rules out the table, which meant the Big Ten literally changed the rules to get the 5-0 Buckeyes into the conference title game instead of Indiana ... but I digress.)

Okay, back to my normal voice.

Day's lone normal, undisputed Big Ten Championship happened all the way back in 2019. Guys like Cignetti and Dan Lanning have since come into the conference and won it more recently than Day.

You can tell me that winning a national championship like Day did is far more important than getting left out of the conference title game like what happened in 2024, and I'll nod in agreement.

But that's not what this argument is about. This is about winning the Big Ten, which is often determined by the draw in this era of unbalanced conference schedules.

The irony in all of this is that Indiana isn't even my pick to win the Big Ten. I'd go with aforementioned Oregon, who I believe is going to join Indiana and Ohio State as the next Big Ten national champion.

I could make the case that Oregon's roster has fewer questions than Indiana's while acknowledging that 56-22 happened, and so did 30-20. But we'll save that potential trip down memory lane for if and when those two teams get to play.

What seems fair to predict is that Ohio State's path to Indianapolis will be a grueling one. The margin for error could be minimal with all of those potential land mines, which isn't necessarily the case for teams like IU and Oregon.

If the Buckeyes do wind up proving the media poll to be prophetic by ending their mini-Big Ten Championship drought, it'd be no small feat.

Just don't convince yourself that it should be a consensus prediction.

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