2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Fernando Mendoza Set as Overwhelming Favorite to be Top Pick

With Super Bowl 60 now behind us, the next team we'll all tune in for an NFL event will be the NFL Draft in April. The Las Vegas Raiders are officially on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick, and despite the draft still being months away, there's one player who is already an overwhelming favorite to be their top pick.

NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Fernando Mendoza -8000
Trinidad Chambliss +3500
Rueben Bain Jr. +4500
Arvell Reese +6000
Ty Simpson +9000
Jordyn Tyson +10000

Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner and National Champion with the Indiana Hoosiers, is set as the -8000 favorite to be the top pick in the draft. If you translate those odds to implied probability, he has a 98.77% chance of being selected first overall.

It makes a ton of sense from what we know at this point. The Raiders are in desperate need of their quarterback of the future, and Mendoza is the clear option ahead of the combine and player interviews. If Dante Moore were in the draft, there would be an argument that he might be the better prospect, but the Oregon Duck has decided to return to school for another year. That leaves Mendoza as the clear top option.

The second name on the odds list is Trinidad Chambliss at +3500. The Ole Miss quarterback had a fantastic College Football Playoff, significantly boosting his odds to be the top pick.

If the Raiders trade their pick to a team looking for a defensive player, or decide themselves to boost their defense and wait a year to get their quarterback, Rueben Bain Jr. is the top defensive player on the odds list. The Miami defensive lineman had 9.5 sacks this past season, along with 30 solo tackles.

With all of that being said, something significant would have to happen between now and the draft in April for Mendoza to not have his name read first on draft night.

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