Film Study: Why Iowa Will Defeat Virginia in NCAA Tournament

The No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes survived a first-round scare to set up a second-round matchup with the only remaining double-digit seed.

No. 10 Virginia took No. 7 Georgia to overtime before prevailing with ease, 82-73. That win marked Virginia's third in OT this season as they're now 3-1 in games that require more than 40 minutes.

Iowa thought it would have it easy against No. 15 Fairleigh Dickinson, but that couldn't have been further from the truth.

It's unknown if Iowa simply wasn't there mentally or if the week off impacted the team that much, but in no world can the Hawkeyes replicate that result if they want to make it out of the first weekend.

Ava Heiden is on a Roll

BIG Time in March 😎@ava_heiden had a career-high 29 points. pic.twitter.com/DusSUXuQmD
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) March 21, 2026

Heiden has put this team on her back when they need her the most, and that's exactly what happened on March 21. The sophomore center was 11-for-16 from the field and knocked down all seven of her free throws.

She set a new career high, 29 points, in just 33 minutes. Heiden added seven rebounds and more than made up for this team's dreadful performance up until the fourth quarter, when they were finally able to pull away.

Iowa Hawkeyes center Ava Heiden — Iowa center Ava Heiden (5) looks to score against FDU forward Bella Toomey (3) March 21, 2026 during a First Round NCAA March Madness game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Iowa and Virginia have similar numbers when it comes to points in the paint, but the Cavaliers simply don't have a player like Heiden. Their forwards each bring a lot to the table, but it's impossible to compare the Hawkeyes leading scorer to Virginia's Kymora Johnson.

Supporting Cast Will Bounce Back

Our BIG Duo 😤@ava_heiden & @StuelkeHannah registered a combined 42 points & 23 rebounds today! pic.twitter.com/3uVyfjvxit
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) March 22, 2026

Senior forward Hannah Stuelke was second on the team with 13 points, but her double-double still was nowhere near what Iowa has come to expect out of her. Stuelke was just 7-for-16 from the free throw line, and while it didn't cost them against FDU, it certainly could against Virginia.

Fellow senior Kylie Feuerbach was just 0-for-6 from the field. She missed all five of her 3-point attempts and her lone point came from the free throw line. That said, she grabbed a career high 11 rebounds, which was a huge help.

Sophomore Chit-Chat Wright was just 3-for-8 while Taylor Stremlow was 2-for-5. Absolutely no one could get anything going in this game, one that saw Iowa play just seven deep.

Freshman Addie Deal and Journey Houston were a combined 1-for-7 off the bench. Iowa managed to shoot 42% in this game thanks to Heiden's 68.8%. Usually, one or two players have an off night, but it was seemingly everyone other than Heiden, and there's no way that happens again in the second round.

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