Iowa Facing Lopsided Odds in Iowa State Rivalry Matchup

At 8-1, the Iowa Hawkeyes have taken on a completely new, terribly refreshing identity in the program's first year under head coach Ben McCollum. Gone are the days in which the team would struggle to contend, both inside and outside their grueling conference schedule. Gone also, it seems, are below .500 finishes defined by disappointment and ever-degrading developments.

For the time being, McCollum has answered almost every question Hawkeyes fans had in the wake of former, longtime lead-man Fran McCaffery. Though while the team looks competitive thus far, one overarching need has yet to be satisfied: a signature win.

Without a Signature Win

While the team did pick up an impressive victory over the Ole Miss Rebels (out of the tantalizing Southeastern Conference) on a neutral floor, their only outcome against a ranked opponent was a blowout loss to the Michigan State Spartans on the road. Perhaps due to the latter happening, the Hawkeyes are facing heavily unfavorable odds heading into their imminent duel with the No.4 Iowa State Cyclones, also away from home.

This year's Cy-Hawk rivalry, prior to tipoff, isn't expected to be close.

In-State Showdown 🌽 pic.twitter.com/7tW5nZPb1X
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) December 11, 2025

According to FOX Sports' odds, the Cyclones are currently favored over the Hawkeyes by 10.5 points, predicting a double-digit defeat for the visiting black and gold. Further distilling these odds down into percentages makes Iowa's case look that much more dire, as FOX reports, "The Cyclones have a 90.8% chance to win this matchup based on the moneyline's implied probability."

That leaves the Hawkeyes with a 9.2% chance to win, if such metrics are to be believed.

Beating the Odds

Although these prior odds, as well as the team's already-existent 19-point loss to the Spartans may suggest an unfortunate repeat of history, the Hawkeyes remain in position to make this marquee matchup a competitive one, so long as they can slow the game down and force the Cyclones to play their way.

Where Michigan State got ahead early was on offense, posting 35 first half points to Iowa's mere 21. The Hawkeyes operate at a much stronger standard when the game is moving methodically with star guard Bennett Stirtz; in the second half of that loss, Iowa ran their scoring up to 31 (to State's 36), coming much closer to the brand of basketball that McCollum wants to play.

For the black and gold to beat the odds, they'll have to find a way to control how and when the ball drops in the bucket on both ends. A tall task, sure, but a signature win is dubbed that way for a reason.

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