Iowa NCAA Tournament Upset Chances: Path to Victory Against Clemson

No one really considers the No. 9 seed taking down the No. 8 seed as an upset, but at the end of the day it's still a lower seed taking care of business.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have limped their way into the tournament as they've won just three games since February 11.

Iowa certainly has a notable win over No. 9 Nebraska in that stretch, but they failed to take down Ohio State in the B1G Tournament, a team they beat by 17 in the regular season.

No. 8 Clemson awaits as Iowa heads to Tampa, FL, the same location where this year their football program picked up their first Top 25 win in forever in the ReliaQuest Bowl against Vanderbilt.

No. 8 Clemson is Slightly Favored

Tip Time Secured. 🫡 pic.twitter.com/khlgJa5gLS
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 16, 2026

ESPN Analytics believes this is a toss-up as the Tigers are given a 50.6% chance to edge out a victory. The No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchups are always tough to predict, but this one stands out in particular.

Early indications have the No. 8 seed advancing to a potential showdown with No. 1 Florida, but Iowa is the only team that can change that narrative.

Senior guard Bennett Stirtz needs to have the game of his life to make up for this slow stretch. It's not that he hasn't lived up to the hype, but expectations are now higher than they've ever been before.

Iowa is making their first tournament appearance in a few years and that's not something they want to go to waste. Stirtz doesn't have an incredible consistent supporting cast around him, but the likes of Cooper Koch and Tavion Banks need to make an impact if Iowa wants to advance.

Iowa's Only Chance at Victory is in the Hands of Their Supporting Cast

Listened to both Iowa and Clemson pressers and it’s staggering how much more Brownell knows about Iowa than McCollum knows about Clemson.

While Ben said he knew nothing about Clemson, Brownell knew all about Stirtz and then started getting into Iowa’s unique ball screens etc lol
— Chris Hassel (@Hassel_Chris) March 15, 2026

Clemson head coach Brad Brownell already gave great insight into this Hawkeyes offense and what he knows about Stirtz. If the future first round draft pick is shut down, this entire team fails to deliver.

Koch had the game of his life against Maryland in the B1G tournament and he's been heating up as of late. That said, he scored just eight points against the Buckeyes which shut down all of the great things he had been doing since February 28.

Junior guard Kael Combs is a sleeper pick as well. He's averaging just 5.9 points per game, far fewer than Banks' 10.5, but at this point Iowa will take whatever they can get as Clemson is the one thing standing in their way of a second round appearance.

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