Predicting Iowa MBB Full NCAA Tournament Path: Deck Stacked Against the Hawkeyes

For the first time since the 2022-23 season the Iowa Hawkeyes are going dancing.

First-year head coach Ben McCollum has some NCAA Tournament experience under his belt, but this is an incredibly tough draw for the Hawkeyes.

Led by senior guard Bennett Stirtz, Iowa knows they have no room for error as their tournament begins against Clemson on March 20 in Tampa, FL.

Iowa snuck in as a No. 9 seed this year and will have to do battle with the No. 8 Tigers out of the ACC. Should Iowa prevail, the No. 1 seed awaits in what should be a battle for the ages.

Iowa's First Round Opponent is no Joke

LET'S DANCE 🕺 pic.twitter.com/ENuGfc4Bxb
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 15, 2026

Clemson found themselves in the same situation as Iowa as both teams got off to a 7-1 start to their respective seasons. While on paper, Clemson's 24-10 overall record is better than Iowa's 21-12, it's impossible to count out this Hawkeyes team.

Iowa proved their worth when they knocked off No. 9 Nebraska, 57-52, back on February 17. Things haven't exactly gone according to plan since that win, but now it's time for them to put their cold streak behind them as they have a chance to prove everyone wrong in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida is Extremely Scary

That Going Dancing Feeling 😁

See you in Tampa! 🌴 pic.twitter.com/JE8xljNdQg
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 15, 2026

An ideal scenario saw Iowa dropping to the No. 10 seed so they didn't have to take on the defending National Champions in the second round. The Gators seemingly have picked up right where they left off at the end of last season, which saw them defeating Houston to win it all.

Iowa wouldn't only have to play Florida on March 22, but they'd have to play the Gators in their home state. Things aren't looking good for the Hawkeyes should they advance, especially since they'd be just 4-7 in their last 11 compared to a Florida team that had won 12 in a row until Vanderbilt sent them packing in the SEC Tournament.

If Iowa Takes Down Florida They Can Beat Anyone

A win over the 26-7 Gators would put this team's confidence through the roof. Iowa hasn't had a deep tournament run in quite some time and that's well documented as the team just making the tournament in McCollum's first year was a huge success.

A few notable B1G opponents sit in the bottom half of the B1G region, including No. 3 Illinois. Not only are they a familiar foe, but the Fighting Illini are set to face No. 14 Penn in the first round, a team coached by the one and only Fran McCaffery.

The No. 2 seed in this region is Houston, as a potential Florida/Houston Elite Eight showdown has all the attention. Iowa has a chance to play spoiler to that marquee matchup, though the chances of that happening are slim to none.

Don't forget to bookmark Iowa Hawkeyes on SI for the latest news. exclusive interviews, recruiting coverage and more!