Iowa Trending In Wrong Direction in Latest Bracketology

Falling out of the AP Top 25 is one thing, but dropping to an eight seed in March Madness is another.

The Iowa Hawkeyes fell to No. 8 in the latest Bracketology projection which would line them up against No. 1 Iowa State in the second round.

Granted, that's if Iowa even makes the tournament. Their lack of a quad one win is alarming to say the least. An easy non-conference schedule did them no favors, as seen with how they started B1G play.

Iowa is far from out of the mix, but falling to No. 8 already is a huge red-flag. This team needs to fix their issues, and they need to do so fast as another ranked opponent awaits.

Iowa Falls To No. 8 Seed

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 13, 2026

Making the tournament is still a step in the right direction, but there's a very real possibility the Hawkeyes could fall to No. 9 NC State in the first round.

That's currently their projected matchup, and the aforementioned Cyclones await as the No. 1 seed. That wouldn't be the worst matchup in the world, knowing how they hung in there earlier this year, but Hawkeyes fans still haven't forgotten that game.

A CyHawk rivalry game in the tournament would be amazing, but it's far from an ideal scenario. Iowa was climbing the ranks with relative ease, but now they're riding a two-game losing streak with no end in sight. If something doesn't change in this next month, Iowa could be on the outside looking in.

Iowa Avoids Disaster... For Now

Iowa guard Brendan Hausen (15) motions for the crowd to get loud during a basketball game against the Illinois Fighting Illini Jan. 11, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Currently, the last four teams in are Texas A&M, Ohio State, UCLA, and New Mexico. Coincidentally, Iowa already has a win over the Bruins, 74-61. They'll have a chance to play the Buckeyes on February 25 at home.

Elsewhere, TCU, Creighton, LSU, and Baylor are the first teams out. The likes of Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Stanford, and Virginia tech are the "next four out" so those are also schools Iowa needs to keep an eye on.

Even if those schools continue to lose, there will be others that take their place. The last thing Iowa wants to do is leave it in the hands of the committee if they're even worthy of being in the tournament. Clearly, they weren't worthy of a Top 25 ranking.

First year head coach Ben McCollum needs to get this squad back on track quickly, otherwise they could very easily be in the same conversation as those 12 teams who are currently fighting for their lives.

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