Last Minute Iowa vs. Minnesota Predictions: Defense Decides

Coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in a year, the Iowa Hawkeyes will look to use the home crowd to their advantage against Minnesota.

The Golden Gophers are no joke and ESPN Analytics gives them a 42.6% chance to win this game. That percentage would've been nowhere near as high had Iowa just knocked off No. 2 UCLA on the road, but a two-game skid will sway the odds for sure.

Iowa remains the nation's No. 10 team with their 18-4 (9-2) record. Minnesota comes to Carver with a 16-6 (7-4) record and is riding a four game winning streak.

Granted, none of those four wins are against a ranked opponent. Take nothing away from what the Golden Gophers are doing, but their last ranked win was a one-point victory over USC, a team no longer in the Top 25. Obviously though, that Trojans team just took care of business against Iowa which is alarming.

Iowa Can't Let Minnesota's Defense Get To Them

Back home 🤩 pic.twitter.com/YKUn2GovWW
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) February 5, 2026

One of the biggest numbers to note coming into this game is the fact that Iowa, on average, scores just over four more points per game. Their 79.7 points per game average is extremely solid, but Minnesota has a number that's even more impressive.

The Golden Gophers are allowing just 54.8 points per game compared to the 65.0 that Iowa is allowing. Knowing Iowa scores 25 more points per game than Minnesota allows, this will be the age-old offense vs. defense showdown.

As long as Iowa controls this game and keeps it relatively high scoring, they'll be in good shape. The longer they let Minnesota hang around, the more difficult this one is going to be.

Don't Sleep on Minnesota

🎤 𝗠𝗶𝗰’𝗱 𝘂𝗽 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶 𝗛𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻

Take a look inside practice from a few weeks back 🎬 pic.twitter.com/tfh7czj0Re
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) February 3, 2026

Another alarming statistic coming into this one is the fact that all four of Iowa's losses have come since December 10. In that same span, Minnesota sports a 10-3 record with two of those losses being to ranked opponents.

Minnesota dropped games to No. 9 Michigan, 70-60, and No. 3 UCLA, 76-58. Iowa hasn't played the Wolverines yet but the Golden Gophers hosted the Bruins and were still embarassed by that wide of a bargain.

Keep in mind, Minnesota doesn't have a single player averaging over 14 points per game. Their leading scorer is junior Grace Grocholski with 13.4 points per game, a wide margin compared to Ava Heiden (16.3) and even Hannah Stuelke (14.0). Iowa's third leading scorer, Chit-Chat Wright (12.6), is averaging just under one point less than Minnesota's leader.

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