Three Last Minute Iowa vs. Iowa State MBB Predictions

The final Cy-Hawk game of 2025 comes to a head as the 8-1 (1-1) Iowa Hawkeyes head to Ames to take on an Iowa State team that jumped to No. 4 in the rankings. After their dominant win over No. 1 Purdue, on the road no less, AP voters had no choice but to respect the Cyclones.

Iowa State has yet to lose a game this season, and the last team they want to lose to is their fiercest rivals. Sitting at 9-0, the Cyclones are looking to build off the momentum from their monumental upset over the Boilermakers.

1. Iowa Manages To Keep It Close

Moving Up. 📈 pic.twitter.com/svtonzWria
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) December 8, 2025

If the Cyclones come out of the gate and completely swam the Hawkeyes, this game isn't going to go well for Iowa. This team needs more than Bennett Stirtz to get the job done against the No. 4 team in the nation. After seeing how well the No. 7 team, Michigan State handled them, it's no wonder why ESPN Analytics only gives Iowa a 8.6% chance to win.

Iowa State has only had one close game this year. Other than their 83-82 win over No. 14 St. John's, they haven't won a game by fewer than 18 points. Sure, Iowa lost to MSU by 19, but this is a rivalry game and things don't always play out as expected.

2. Iowa Limits The Cyclones Three Pointers

That W feeling 😁 pic.twitter.com/G7tBu62yvu
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) December 7, 2025

Having put up 100+ points on two occasions this season, the Cyclones are no stranger to the three ball. They're shooting a staggering 43.8% from three this season. Their leading scorer, Milan Momcilovic, is shooting 53.6% from three point range.

Of their four players in double digits, only Tamin Lipsey is shooting less than 40% from three. An off night would bode well for the Hawkeyes, but it's up to head coach Ben McCollum and this defense to keep them in check.

3. A New Face Steps Up For The Hawkeyes

Cam Came to Play. 😏@CameronManyawu x #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/ZIN1JD4Tlk
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) December 8, 2025

82 points is the most Iowa State has allowed this season, but they've showed that 50-68 points is the range most teams can expect against them. It's easy to predict a big night from Stirtz, but it's even easier to predict that the Cyclones will shut him down.

If that happens, someone else needs to step up. Fans have been asking for Brendan Hausen to get more minutes as the Kansas State transfer didn't play due to a "coaches decision" against Maryland. Regardless, the likes of Cooper Koch, Tavion Banks, and Alvaro Folgueiras need to be on their A-Game as it's very likely Iowa State sells out to stop Stirtz.

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