Why Iowa Will Upset Clemson in NCAA Tournament

The No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes have a fighting chance against No. 8 Clemson.

Mar 11, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Tavion Banks (6) reacts after scoring against the Maryland Terrapins during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The 2026 NCAA Tournament started with a No. 9 seed taking down No. 8, so there's no reason the Iowa Hawkeyes can't replicate those results.

In fact, the No. 8 seed in that scenario was Ohio State, a team Iowa had already beaten in the regular season. The Buckeyes fell to No. 9 TCU, 66-64.

Now, all eyes are on the Hawkeyes. It's been just over one week since Ben McCollum's squad was eliminated from the B1G Tournament.

Selection Sunday mirrored what everyone expected and that was Iowa receiving a low seed. There have already been quite a few upsets in the tournament, and now Iowa is looking to get the next.

No. 9 vs. No. 8 Upset

Iowa head coach Ben McCollum watches a broadcast unveiling the NCAA Tournament bracket March 15, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

These games always feel like a coin flip, but on paper Clemson certainly has a few advantages. The Tigers come into this game at 24-10 overall while Iowa is just 21-12. As tough as the B1G is, Clemson held their own against No. 12 Alabama, No. 10 BYU, and No. 1 Duke on two occasions.

The Tigers also have quality wins over No. 24 Louisville and No. 19 North Carolina. This is a Clemson team with three ranked wins on the year while Iowa has just one, so it's absolutely justifiable to say Iowa winning this game would be an upset.

Iowa's Ball Movement is Far More Impressive

Hawkeyes fans certainly need to give Clemson's defense their flowers, but Iowa has a chance to make them look silly. Looking at these team's last 10 games, Iowa is averaging exactly three more assists per game.

As dominant as Bennett Stirtz is, he sure isn't afraid to pass the ball. Of course he leads the team with his 20.0 points per game, but he's also first (by a wide margin) with 4.5 assists per game.

How Will Tigers Look Without Carter Welling?

Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Clemson Tigers center Carter Welling (22) is helped from the court in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

McCollum has one less player to prepare for which makes things incredibly easier. Clemson could have someone play the game of thier life and make Iowa regret everything, but they certainly feel a lot better going into this game knowing they don't have to deal with the 6'10'' junior.

Welling suffered a season ending injury in the ACC Tournament and now the Tigers must rely on only one-half of their dynamic duo, TJ Godfrey. The Godfrey vs. Stirtz matchup will be a fun one to keep tabs on, but there should be a clear winner in that scenario and it's in Iowa's favor.

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