Don't Sleep on Iowa: Reasons to Believe the Hawkeyes Can Exceed Expectations

Whether you want to believe it or not, Iowa was right there in 2025. The Hawkeyes lost to Indiana in a game they had a hold of late. Oregon beat them by two. And Iowa blew a lead against USC.

Flip those around, and the Hawkeyes are suddenly in the College Football Playoff, and 2025 sings a different tune.

But it's the past, and it stays there. The page has turned to 2026, which sets the table for new expectations for the Iowa Hawkeyes.

What are Iowa's 2026 expectations?

If we are to trust the numbers and Vegas, Iowa is expected to settle into another year of being competitive, but not great.

The win total for Iowa is set at 7.5, a number Iowa has historically soared past, while the computer models are predicting a 9-3 record.

Is that the ceiling, though? There are reasons to believe 2026 could see Iowa ascend to the next level.

The defense holds up its end of the bargain

Phil Parker has been putting on a masterclass for years at Iowa, and 2026 could be another season Iowa tightens the screw on that side of the ball.

After a down year in 2025 in terms of forcing turnovers, Iowa could be ripe for a robust turnover total, which sets up the offense on short fields and, at times, wins games by itself.

The ground game really is that good

I have long been extremely high on Iowa's rushing attack ahead of 2026, and if things go according to plan, things really could be that good.

Iowa has a deeper room than it has had in years with four running backs capable of starting. There is no reason this group shouldn't have fresh legs for four quarters behind an offensive line set to bulldoze defensive lines once again.

Iowa's new quarterback overperforms

The Hawkeyes don't need Jeremy Hecklinski or Hank Brown to put up 2019 Joe Burrow numbers. They need them to do what is asked of them, complete some third downs, and not turn the ball over.

That is the expectation. What if Iowa catches lightning in a bottle in Tim Lester's unique offensive scheme and can rely on the passing game at times? It's not as likely as others, but is anything likely in college football anymore? That's why we believe.

The ball returns the right bounces to Iowa

This is the one I think could make the biggest difference in 2026. Iowa was painfully close in 2025, yet saw the smallest margins go against them.

Iowa State completed a double-tipped pass to set up a game-winning field goal. Indiana scraped by Iowa due to an incomplete screen pass that could have set Iowa up with a game-winning field goal.

Oregon completed a pass through a gap the size of a shoebox in the rain, and USC saw Iowa hand the game to them.

Football has a funny way of finding its level, and for a team like Iowa, which keeps punching, things eventually break its way. In 2026, it could be an avalanche of being on the right side of the bounce.

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