What Do the Numbers Say About Kansas vs UCF? ESPN Analytics Prediction

The numbers have been crunched, and the Jayhawks appear highly-likely to advance to the next round of the Big 12 tournament

Jan 28, 2025; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Zeke Mayo (5) passes the ball through UCF Knights center Moustapha Thiam (52) and guard Darius Johnson (3) during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

90.7 percent. That’s the probability Kansas (20-11, 11-9 Big 12) was given by ESPN’s metrics to knock off UCF (17-15, 7-13) back in late January.

After steamrolling UCF 99-48 on the road earlier in the season, that 90.7 percent may have been lowballing the Jayhawks chances when they welcomed the Knights into Allen Fieldhouse.

But 20 minutes into the contest, UCF carried a 43-41 lead over Kansas, and was in the driver seat up 74-73 on the Jayhawks with as little as 5:29 remaining. Ultimately, Kansas escaped with a 91-87 victory, but it sent a clear message: UCF can compete with anyone.

This time around, with the two squads meeting in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament on Wednesday night (8:30 p.m. CT, ESPN 2/ESPN+), the Jayhawks are once again heavy favorites, as ESPN’s BPI Predictor gives Kansas an 82.4% chance of prevailing. 

Although the pair are meeting on a neutral court, given the location of Kansas City, and Kansas’ massive fanbase, the Jayhawks’ blue and crimson will certainly outnumber the Knight’s black and gold, making it almost a de-facto road matchup for UCF.

But, even in legitimate road games, the Knights have done it before. When they went to Lubbock on New Year’s Eve for a matchup with Texas Tech, the analytics gave UCF just a 12.3 percent chance of pulling out the road win – even smaller than it has against Kansas on Wednesday. 

Nonetheless, the Knights pulled out a 87-83 win, handing the Red Raiders, who finished second in the Big 12, one of their three home losses they suffered all season.

And just last night, UCF “beat the odds”, as ESPN expected it to fall against Utah, but the Knights cruised to an 87-72 win. 

Regardless, Kansas certainly walks into the T-Mobile Center with the upper-hand, but it appears UCF may be well-positioned to give the Jayhawks a run for their money.