2023 NCAA Tournament Preview: West Regional Breakdown
To get you ready for the start of the NCAA Tournament – whether you want to win your bracket pool or just can’t get enough March Madness talk – we’re diving deep into each region of the bracket.
We’re starting off our region previews with Kansas’ region. It’s just that no one expected it to be in the West…
Kansas is joined in the region with West Coast powerhouses UCLA and Gonzaga, as well as a team that has long been considered a title favorite in UCONN.
Biggest Storyline
It has to be the placement of the Jayhawks and their being sent out west instead of the midwest, which was given to Houston. And truthfully, none of it makes sense. Even after the committee chair tried to explain.
And it’s not just that KU won’t be as close to home. It’s that this is a gauntlet of a region.
The hope for an angry fan base now is that the team uses this slight as fuel and takes their frustration out on their opponents. Also, as we’re about to get to, there are also a ton of high-seeded mid-majors ready to knock off these supposed favorites.
Best First-Round Matchup
No. 4 UCONN vs No. 13 Iona
This is almost too good. The computers love UCONN. Meanwhile, Rick Pitino leads an Iona team that is in the top 80 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And the game is being played in Albany, New York, which is just a 2:15 drive from Iona’s campus.
The Gaels also have the third-longest winning streak in the country at 14 games and haven’t lost since January 27. And Iona is legitimately great at 3-point defense and blocking opponents, which will be tough against a big UCONN team. Pitino versus Dan Hurley is going to be must-watch TV.
Upset Pick(s)
No. 12 VCU over No. 5 St. Mary’s
No. 10 Boise St over No. 7 Northwestern
There are some incredibly dangerous and entertaining mid-major teams in this region. VCU is like Iona in that it has a long winning streak (nine games) and like Boise State, it has a great defense and has beaten tournament opponents.
VCU is 17th in defensive efficiency at KenPom and sixth nationally at forcing opponent turnovers. And the Rams have challenged themselves in their scheduling. VCU has beaten Pittsburgh and Vanderbilt and lost to Arizona State by just four and Memphis by 15 on the road. The computers love St. Mary’s, but the other Gaels play at a slow pace that makes it more likely to play close games.
Meanwhile, Boise State also has a top-15 defense and has beaten Washington State, Colorado, and most impressively, Texas A&M by 15 on a semi-road court. The Broncos actually rank higher in KenPom than Northwestern and they are great at keeping opponents off the glass, limiting them to one shot. And they have long, talented wings who can shoot.
Cinderella Pick (double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16 or further)
No. 10 Boise State
This shouldn’t be too surprising of a pick given what we talked about above. Not only do I like the matchup with Northwestern, but it’s also tough to see how UCLA fares without Jaylen Clark in the tournament. Along with being strong defensively, the Broncos also shoot 36% from three as a team and have balanced scoring and a veteran point guard in Marcus Shaver.
Dark Horse Pick (five seed or higher than could win the region)
No. 6 TCU
I’ve long thought TCU, when fully healthy, was one of the most dangerous teams in the Big 12 and country. Eddie Lampkin isn’t with the team, but Mike Miles is, and I think this team is built well for March. If they can survive round one, the Horned Frogs’ guards match up well against Gonzaga, and then while I’ve long liked UCLA this year, not having Jaylen Clark is huge, especially on the defensive end. Don’t count TCU out.
Regional Final Prediction
No. 1 Kansas vs No. 6 TCU
Look, I can’t go with a chalk-filled No. 1 vs No. 2 after talking about how deep and balanced this region is. I really like UCLA, but it’s a tough, tough road ahead for the Bruins. If they were 100% healthy, sign me up, but they’re not.
I honestly could see this region playing out about 15 different ways. This feels like it could be the chaos region, where upsets in the early rounds make for some matchups we didn’t expect. I’m going with a Big 12 showdown with the Final Four on the line, but it could easily be UCONN vs Gonzaga, Kansas vs UCLA, VCU vs Boise State, and so on.
It’s going to be a wild west region (see what I did there?), that’s for sure.
