Big 12 Women's Basketball Championship Primer

The Teams
Tournament Predictions

The Big 12 Women's Basketball Championship started last night and the quarterfinals are set. Oklahoma State eliminated Texas Tech with a 73-58 victory in the first game, and then West Virginia raced out to a quick lead and never looked back in beating TCU 68-48.

That leaves eight teams playing in four games over the course of the day's quarterfinals. For those that don't follow women's basketball closely, we've put together a "cheat sheet" you can use while following all the action today. Or you can come back Saturday or Sunday to get ready for semifinal or final action.

Plus, make sure you listen to the episode of the Rock Chalk Podcast where I'm joined by Jamie Steyer to preview the tournament:

The Teams

#1 Baylor Bears

2022 Record: 25-5 Overall, 15-3 Big 12

Player To Watch: NaLyssa Smith #1 (F) - The senior averaged 22.3 points per game and 11.7 rebounds per game in the regular season, and was named the Big 12 Player of the Year for the second consecutive year.

Tournament Overview: While the Bears seem to be solidly projected as a #2 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, they are potentially fighting for positioning. A win in the tournament would go a long way towards pushing them into the nearby Wichita Regional instead of one of the coasts.

While it's difficult to imagine that the Cowgirls can actually pull off an upset, especially given how the Bears have been playing recently, Baylor has numerous pitfalls awaiting. Both potential semifinal opponents have proven that they can compete with the Bears twice this season.

#2 Iowa State Cyclones

2022 Record: 25-5 Overall, 14-4 Big 12

Player To Watch: Ashley Joens #24 (G) - The senior averaged 20.0 points per game and 9.2 rebounds per game during the regular season. She was a unanimous All Big 12 First team selection.

Tournament Overview: The Cyclones seem to be comfortably projected as a #2 seed, having been included in that position in each of the Top 16 bracket reveals throughout the season. While a loss to the Mountaineers in the quarterfinals might open them up to the possibility of dropping a seed line, they are not in real danger of missing out on hosting the first two rounds.

Up first is a Mountaineer team that Iowa State just defeated in a blowout that got chippy at the end. Could that serve as motivation in the second straight matchup between these teams?

After that is a potential matchup against a Texas Longhorn team that enjoyed two big wins in a sweep of the Cyclones this season.

#3 Texas Longhorns

2022 Record: 23-6 Overall, 13-5 Big 12

Player To Watch: Rori Harmon #3 (G) - While the freshman wasn't the team's leading scorer, she did average 10.4 points per game, 4.7 rebounds per game and 4.8 assists per game. She earned several honors from the conference this season, including spots on the All-Big 12 Second Team, Big 12 All-Defensive Team and Big 12 All-Freshman Team.

Tournament Overview: Texas is currently projected comfortably as a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament starting next week, which means that there isn't much on the line from a seeding perspective for the Longhorns. A loss against Kansas State won't cause them to miss out on hosting in the first weekend. Plus, with both Baylor and Iowa State a seed line above them and a tournament win not likely enough to push them over both teams, it's unlikely that the Longhorns can end up in the much closer Wichita regional.

That doesn't mean this team doesn't have anything to play for. Head coach Vic Schaefer is undoubtedly looking for more consistency in the play of his team, and given the record against Kansas State and either team they could face in the semifinals, I think they have a good chance to perform well this weekend.

#4 Oklahoma Sooners

2022 Record: 23-7 Overall, 12-6 Big 12

Player To Watch: Madi Williams #25 (G) - The senior averaged 17.7 points per game, 7.7 rebounds per game and 2.4 assists per game. She was a unanimous selection to the All-Big 12 First Team.

Tournament Overview: Outside of teams that need to win the Big 12 Championship in order to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, Oklahoma probably has the most to play for when it comes to postseason considerations. Consistently projected at the bottom of the Top 16 in the committee's bracket reveals throughout the season, Oklahoma needs to solidify its standing in order to be able to host the first two rounds next week.

While a win in the quarterfinals over Kansas should be enough, saying that is much easier than the task the Sooners have in front of them. The Jayhawks have held multiple key players to below their season averages in the two prior meetings, including just this past weekend in Norman. If Oklahoma can get past the quarterfinals, they will likely face a Baylor team that they swept in the regular season. It's tough to beat a team three times in a single season, but expect that to be a highly entertaining matchup if it happens.

#5 Kansas Jayhawks

2022 Record: 20-8 Overall, 11-7 Big 12

Player To Watch: Holly Kersgieter #13 (G) - The junior averaged 13.6 points per game and 4.6 rebounds per game. She was selected to the All-Big 12 First Team

Tournament Overview: The Jayhawks are currently projected as a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament, so it probably isn't realistic to think that they can make it all the way up to be able to host the first two rounds. However, Kansas is likely looking to move up a couple seed lines to avoid a potential matchup against a #1 seed in the second round.

Kansas has about as good a draw as you can hope for in a stacked Big 12 conference, facing two teams that they competing quite well with over the course of the season on their side of the bracket. The first task will be to replicate the success they had in Norman just this last Saturday, and then they will need to be able to finish the upset that they nearly had over Baylor in the regular season. Fans that are looking for the Jayhawks to cut down the nets will likely be rooting for the winner of the Texas-Kansas State quarterfinal to advance to the final, as Kansas beat each of those teams once and was able to remain competitive in the other game this season.

#6 Kansas State Wildcats

2022 Record: 19-11 Overall, 9-9 Big 12

Player To Watch: Ayoka Lee #50 (C) - The junior averaged 22.6 points per game, 10.3 rebounds per game and 3.1 blocks per game. She was a unanimous selection to the All-Big 12 First Team.

Tournament Overview: Kansas State is solidly in the NCAA Tournament field, and like Kansas, is not in a position to improve their seed enough to potentially host the first two rounds of the tournament. Instead, this tournament is about getting back on track and building some momentum heading into next week's tournament.

Their first opponent is the Texas Longhorns, a team that beat them solidly twice this season by forcing Lee to be inefficient in her shooting. The Wildcats will need to find a consistent second option in order to take some pressure off of her and open up opportunities for the rest of the offense as well.

If they can get past the Longhorns, the Iowa State Cyclones will likely be waiting. It's a tall task to expect two straight upsets to make the final, but if Lee is playing well and has some support from the rest of the team, it's definitely a possibility.

#7 West Virginia Mountaineers

2022 Record: 15-14 Overall, 7-11 Big 12

Player To Watch: Esmery Martinez #12 (F) - The junior averaged 11.0 points per game and 8.7 rebounds per game. She was selected to the All-Big 12 Second Team.

Tournament Overview: West Virginia is a long shot to win the Big 12 Championship. After the loss of Kirsten Deans to injury, the Mountaineers have relied on a mix of players, led by Martinez, to remain competitive and scrap together wins.

To get an upset over Iowa State, they are likely going to need to harness the emotion that resulted from their loss to Iowa State at the end of the season. Regardless of the results in the tournament, they will finish with a record no worse than .500, which should be enough to extend their season and get them into the Women's NIT.

#9 Oklahoma State Cowgirls

2022 Record: 9-19 Overall, 3-15 Big 12

Player To Watch: Lauren Fields #23 (G) - The junior averaged 16.0 points per game and 4.2 rebounds per game this season. She was selected to the All-Big 12 Second Team.

Tournament Overview: The big story for the Cowgirls heading into the tournament was the mutual parting between the team and head coach Jim Littell, who has led the team for the last 11 seasons. With the prospect of it being his last game on the sidelines, the Cowgirls powered through to a opening round upset of Texas Tech.

With their current record, this team will not qualify for the WNIT, meaning that to extend their season past the weekend, they will need to win the entire tournament. Don't underestimate the power that comes with playing with emotion, so long as they can avoid letting it affect them negatively. But, given that they face Baylor in today's quarterfinal, it's tough to imagine that they will be able to extend the season any further.

Tournament Predictions

It's been tough to get a read on this conference all season long, especially since there has not been one or two teams that have been significantly better through the entire season.

Baylor is by far the hottest team at the moment, powered by NaLyssa Smith. But they haven't been infallible, as the Kansas Jayhawks showed in Waco two weeks ago. Expect to see Baylor get a game from whoever makes it out of the first quarterfinal of the day, but ultimately it's tough to pick against the Bears.

As for the bottom of the bracket, a lot of that will be determined by which Texas team shows up to play. Iowa State should be good enough to get out of the quarterfinals without much trouble, but Texas will need to be on their game to get past Ayoka Lee and the Wildcats. If they can storm past Kansas State, they've shown in two games this season that they match up well against the Cyclones.

Ultimately, I have a hard time picking against the two favorites. Baylor and Iowa State established themselves as the two best teams over the course of the season, and both will be motivated to secure that placement in the Wichita regional.

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