ESPN Computers Project Kansas vs Duke Matchup as Jayhawks Face Must-Win

The annual Champions Classic is set to begin between four of college basketball's most prestigious programs. After defeating Michigan State a season ago, the Kansas Jayhawks are set to face off against Duke for the fifth time in the event's history.

Duke is currently ranked No. 4 in the country and somehow might be even better than last year, when the Blue Devils made a Final Four run behind freshman phenom Cooper Flagg. They are now led by Cameron Boozer and a number of other talented youngsters.

Meanwhile, KU failed to come out victorious against North Carolina in Chapel Hill last week and is looking to avenge that loss with a win over another blue blood program.

So what are the computers saying about this matchup? Here is what ESPN's Matchup Predictor says will happen in Tuesday's showdown.

ESPN Computers Predict Outcome of Kansas vs. Duke

Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self yells out during the second half of the game against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders inside Allen Fieldhouse on Nov. 11, 2025. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Duke 81.2%, Kansas 18.8%.

While the numbers give KU a decent chance to win considering how well Duke has played, the computer is not accounting for one key factor heading into the contest.

Darryn Peterson, the Big 12 Freshman of the Year and one of the best guards in the country, has an uncertain injury status due to a lingering cramping/hamstring issue.

Head coach Bill Self told the media after yesterday's win against Princeton that Peterson might not be available in the immediate future, which raised even more questions about whether he will be active against Duke.

Kansas On SI Verdict

If Peterson were to be absent, that would significantly reduce KU's chances. As much as I hate to say it, Peterson being out effectively diminishes any chance Kansas has in this contest.

I was already expecting Duke to be the heavy favorite, but they could legitimately be double-digit favorites on a neutral site with Peterson inactive. The Jayhawks' flaws were already exposed to a UNC team that isn't nearly as talented.

It is possible that Self was simply keeping Duke on its toes in his postgame presser by forcing them to prepare for both scenarios, but it is hard to imagine them playing Peterson unless he is truly at 100%, something he clearly isn't right now.

In the games KU has played without Peterson, the offense has been stagnant and inconsistent with subpar guard play. The computers may give KU an 18.8% chance, but I'd drop that number even further.