Indiana vs. Kansas Basketball Preview: A Blue Blood Battle in AFH
Kansas went on the road to its biggest rival and whooped Missouri by 28, only to fall two spots in the AP poll. Safe to say, if the Jayhawks play like that on Saturday against No. 14 Indiana, they will not be moving backwards.
One of college basketball’s biggest historical blue bloods is coming to Allen Fieldhouse with one of its best teams of the last decade. This is the type of matchup and on-campus environment the sport could use as much of as it can get. Kudos to both programs for getting this done.
Opponent Overview
Team: Indiana
Record: 8-2
KenPom: 16
Line: TBD
Team Form
The Hoosiers started out the year 7-0 with wins over Xavier on the road and North Carolina, but have dropped two of the last three. But while a 15-point loss to Rutgers doesn’t look great, it was on the road and Rutgers is a top-35 team in KenPom. And Indiana’s most recent loss was a 89-75 loss on a neutral site to Arizona, which has one of the best offenses in the country.
It’s also worth noting that the last three games have taken place without freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, who had started the first seven games and was producing 8.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game but is suffering from a back injury.
Players to Watch
Indiana is actually built similar to Kansas in that there won’t be any 7-footers roaming the paint, but each team is tall across every position. Only one of Indiana’s top 10 rotation players is shorter than 6-foot-5 (that’s 6-3 guard Xavier Johnson) but none are taller than 6-9.
The face of the Hoosiers is one of those 6-9 forwards, Trayce Jackson-Davis. The senior is slightly below his offensive outputs of the past two years – averaging 16.8 points per game compared to 18.3 and 19.1 the last two years – but he’s still a double-double machine, averaging 8.4 rebounds to go with his scoring output. And even though his overall ppg numbers are down a bit, his efficiency numbers are up. Jackson-Davis is shooting 64.5% from the field so far, which, if it continues, would be the first time he has shot over 60% for a season in his career.
Xavier Johnson is the only other Hoosier in double figures for the season (10.9 per game) and he’s also the best passer on the team, averaging 5.2 assists per game. Then, Indiana has five players averaging between 7.6 and 9.9 points per game. Miller Kopp is the most dangerous threat from 3-point range, shooting 48.9% on the year, but the Hoosiers as a whole are shooting 36.4%.
Matchups to Watch
This game is going to produce some fun individual matchups. Jalen Wilson and Jackson-Davis in the front court in a battle of KenPom Player of the Year candidates (Wilson is No. 2, Jackson-Davis No. 10) is the showcase. But Xavier Johnson and Dajuan Harris in a matchup of excellent passing guards and veteran floor generals is another worth watching.
From a team perspective, the game looks like it may be decided from the paint. The Hoosiers are excellent from inside the arc this season, with a two-point percentage of 58%, which is 15th-best nationally. But in both of Indiana’s losses, this definitely was not the case. IU only hit 11-31 (35.5%) from two against Rutgers and 19-44 (43.2%) in the loss to Arizona.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers’ defense is holding opponents to just 43.7% shooting from two on the season, but Arizona was able to exploit IU’s defense and 21-38 (55%) from inside the arc. Indiana can also give up offensive rebounds because of that lack of size in the front court, so being able to extend possessions beyond one shot will be important for Kansas.
Prediction
Kansas is coming off an impressive and emotionally charged game against Missouri but with a full week in between games, the Jayhawks should be rested. And Allen Fieldhouse is going to be a factor. This is going to be the loudest the arena has been so far this year. And while Indiana has played two road games already, this is a different level of hostile environment.
The Jayhawks match up well with the Hoosiers and it helps that Indiana is not going to take a ton of threes. Though Kansas better be ready to battle in the paint and rebound. The KU offense has been much better since coming back from the Bahamas and it’s hard to pick against the Jayhawks with AFH rocking. I’m going to say Wilson goes toe-to-toe with Jackson-Davis, Kevin McCullar continues his hot stretch, and Kansas eeks out a close win.
Kansas 75, Indiana 67
Prediction record
6-4 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 82-73 KU | Actual: 95-67 KU
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