Is Cal Baptist Over Kansas a Popular Upset Pick? Here’s What Experts Think

For the first time in 18 years, Kansas was upset in the first round last year after it fell to No. 10 seed Arkansas. It marked just the third time in Bill Self's tenure that the Jayhawks bowed out of March Madness in the Round of 64.

Many fans are wondering whether KU will go back-to-back as a one-and-done in tomorrow's matchup against No. 13 seed Cal Baptist. The Lancers are going dancing for the first time in program history after winning the WAC championship.

There have been countless instances of 13-over-4 upsets over the years, but this doesn't appear to be a popular pick among analysts. Nearly every college basketball panel is taking Kansas in this matchup.

Experts Aren’t Backing Cal Baptist for an Upset

From experts like ESPN's Joe Lunardi and Jay Bilas to CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein and Matt Norlander, there are very few respected names picking Cal Baptist in this game. The Jayhawks are an overwhelming favorite, and while many believe the game could get ugly due to CBU's strong defense, hardly anyone is taking them outright aside from casual bracket builders searching for an upset.

Bilas and Lunardi both explained their reasoning for siding with KU in recent pieces, and neither gave CBU much of a chance.

"Kansas was awful in its Big 12 tournament loss to Houston -- the Jayhawks' 47 points were by far their fewest of the season," Bilas wrote. "Regardless, they should win this game thanks to Flory Bidunga protecting the rim."

Mar 13, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Elmarko Jackson (13) and Kansas Jayhawks guard Tre White (3) shake hands during the second half against the Houston Cougars at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

"The Lancers simply don't have the offensive chops to hang around too long," Lunardi claimed. "Even with Daniels' explosive scoring and second team All-WAC guard Martel Williams, CBU rates in the KenPom metrics as a below-average perimeter squad. It has even worse numbers inside the arc. Points may be hard to come by in the school's first taste of NCAA tournament play."

According to ESPN, only 6.9% of brackets picked Cal Baptist to pull off the upset. That is far lower than other No. 13 seeds like Hofstra (11%), Troy (14%), and Hawaii (8%).

Kansas may not be playing its best basketball right now, but it doesn't seem likely that it would fall to a team that lost its only Quad 1 game by 31 points earlier this season. Outside of star point guard Dominique Daniels Jr., there isn't much evidence suggesting the Lancers can do it against a disciplined Jayhawk squad that is 7-0 when entering games as a double-digit favorite this year.

On the season, the Lancers rank No. 11 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. That isn't ideal for a Kansas team whose starting big men, Flory Bidunga and Bryson Tiller, have struggled in the paint in recent weeks.

Rick Croy's group isn’t your typical Cinderella, as the program only transitioned to Division I eight years ago. The public may not be picking them, but KU fans should still not overlook this gritty team.