Kansas At Kansas State Basketball Preview: The Most Anticipated Sunflower Showdown in Years
Both teams are ranked. One game separates them in the Big 12 standings. Kansas is the defending champs, while Jerome Tang has put together one of the best year-one rebuilding jobs in the country.
The 2023 editions of the Sunflower Showdown kick off in Manhattan Tuesday in what will be one of the most anticipated matchups in years. Here’s what’s in store for the Jayhawks in the Octagon of Doom.
Opponent Overview
Team: Kansas State
Record: 15-2
KenPom: 26
Line: KU -2
Team Form
Kansas State has already eclipsed its win total from a year ago (14) and had rattled off nine wins in a row before falling at TCU Saturday. The Wildcats are 4-1 in quad one games and 5-2 in the first two quadrants. Before Big 12 play began, the best win on the resume was probably Nevada, with LSU coming in second.
Two of KSU’s first five conference games went to overtime (West Virginia and Baylor), with the Wildcats winning both. But the biggest statement was a 116-103 road win over Texas on January 3. TCU was able to attack the KSU defense at will on Saturday and turned the Wildcats over 20 times on the way to a 82-68 victory.
Players to Watch
K-State is led by two players who are in the conversation for All-American status.
Keyontae Johnson is an amazing comeback story and frankly is one of the best stories in college basketball in general. Johnson collapsed on the court as a member of the Florida Gators two years ago and his heart condition made it seem like he would never play college basketball again. Now he’s scoring a career-high 18.4 points on 56% shooting from the field and 38% from three while grabbing 7.1 rebounds. It’s truly incredible what he’s doing.
Johnson’s All-American-caliber partner is Markquis Nowell, who is duplicating his scoring as a sophomore at Little Rock but now at the power-5 level. Nowell is averaging 17.1 points per game while shooting 38% from three. But what is arguably most impressive is that he’s also averaging 8.5 assists per game and 2.2 steals.
Down low, Kansas will have to contend with 6-10, 210-pound Nae’Qwan Tomlin, who has scored in double figures in 10 of 17 games and is averaging more than a block per game.
Matchups to Watch
While Kansas State has played at a fast pace all year, the tempo has escalated in conference play. KSU has the quickest tempo in the Big 12 through five games. It is also second in offensive efficiency (Kansas is third), third in effective field goal percentage (KU is fourth), and third in three-point shooting (KU is second).
Which is all to say, we should see a higher-scoring game than we saw on Saturday. Like Iowa State, forcing turnovers is a strength for K-State, but the Wildcats also turn it over on 19% of possessions. Also similar to the Cyclones, KSU gives up a lot of offensive boards and sends its opponents to the free-throw line at a large clip. But the Wildcats are good at both grabbing offensive boards and getting to the line when on offense.
Prediction
This is going to be a raucous environment inside Bramlage. It’s not the first time Kansas has experienced one like that this year – Missouri was hyped and hostile as well – and the Jayhawks handled themselves pretty well in that occasion. I could see both of these teams getting off to a slow start as they try to feel each other out; Kansas as it adapts to the noise and craziness, and K-State because it is too amped up.
KSU will want to run and get out in transition, using the crowd to its advantage. Kansas’ ability to slow it down and take the noise out of it will be key. Which means it will also be key how well the Wildcats can shoot it from deep. If Nowell hits a couple of threes early, it’s only going to juice the fans more.
I would be surprised if this game is played in the 90s or 100s like KSU’s wins against Texas and Baylor. This feels like one that Kansas would be happy with living in the mid-70s or low 80s. I could see KSU shooting lights out and stealing this one, and Kansas is going to drop games in this league. It doesn’t mean the Wildcats are better, it just feels like it might be their night.
I still have Kansas as the best team in the league and the Big 12 favorite, but losses have to come from some place — the conference winner will likely have at least three to four losses — and this feels like a likely one.
Kansas State 79, Kansas 75
Prediction record
10-6-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 73-67 KU | Actual: 62-60 KU
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