Kansas at Missouri Basketball Preview: The Rivalry Returns to Columbia
The Border War came back a year ago but only one team was ready for it as Kansas blew the doors off Missouri 102-65 in Allen Fieldhouse.
Now, the Jayhawks will travel to Dajuan Harris’ hometown to face a Tigers team that is much improved from a season ago, at least on paper.
Opponent Overview
Team: Missouri
Record: 9-0
KenPom: 50
Line: KU - 3.5
Team Form
Missouri is already three wins away from matching its win total from a season ago when it went 12-21. But nothing the Tigers have gone up against so far compares to their opposition on Saturday. Mizzou has only played one team in the top 100 at KenPom (an 88-84 OT win at Wichita State) and only one other has been against a team in the top 200 in KenPom (a 92-85 home win over No. 174 Penn). And two of those wins against sub-200 opponents were by seven points or less.
The turnaround has come on the offensive end and by playing faster. Under Cuonzo Martin last year, the Tigers were No. 260 in adjusted tempo. This year with Dennis Gates at the helm, Mizzou is fourth best nationally in adjusted tempo. The Tigers’ average possession length is 15 seconds, which is a top-10 mark in the country.
Players to Watch
Missouri’s most productive player so far this year has been Cleveland State guard transfer D’Moi Hodge, who is averaging 16.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. Hodge is one of five Tigers averaging double figures, which also includes familiar face Kobe Brown (14.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.6 apg).
But Mizzou has remade this roster with transfers. Forward Noah Carter has been incredibly efficient in the paint, shooting 70% from inside the arc on his way to 12.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Clemson transfer Nick Honor and UMASS, Bradley, and John Logan College transfer Sean East are both averaging 10 points per game.
The biggest name in the transfer window for Mizzou is one of Dajuan Harris’ close friends and fellow Columbia native Isiaih Mobley. But after averaging 20 points per game the last two years at Missouri State while shooting around 40% from deep, Mobley has struggled offensively to start. Mobley is only averaging nine points per game while shooting just 28% from three-point range.
Matchups to Watch
Missouri is not a tall team, especially compared to a few that Kansas has played so far. The Tigers have the No. 300 tallest team on average, according to KenPom, and yet, Missouri has been strong from two-point range. Mizzou is shooting 63.8% from inside the arc, which is second best nationally. But it’s hard to know how much of that has been boosted because of the competition. Kansas’ ability to keep Missouri from making easy baskets at the rim will play a big role in the outcome.
The positives for Kansas are that Missouri gets to the free-throw line even more infrequently than the Jayhawks, and despite the lesser competition, the Tigers are giving up a lot of second chances on the offensive glass. Missouri is allowing opponents to grab 35% of their offensive rebounds, which means this could be a huge game for KJ Adams to keep possessions alive.
Prediction
This is a pretty fascinating breakdown when it comes to the line and prediction. It’s hard to know if Missouri is really as strong as its 9-0 record suggests because the Tigers have yet to play a power-five opponent this year. On the other hand, this is Kansas’ first true road game and despite what you think about restarting the rivalry, that arena is going to be a raucous environment. Not to mention it’s a homecoming for Harris.
The crowd will do their best to keep Mizzou in it, but the fact is that the Tigers’ defense has been shaky against lesser competition and even though KU’s offense hasn’t been world-beaters, players like Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick are far above anything they’ve faced so far. Unless Mizzou shoots well above its 35% average from three, I don’t see the Tigers having enough to pull the upset. I like Kansas to cover on the road.
Kansas 82, Missouri 73
Prediction record
5-4 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 77-69 KU | Actual: 91-65 KU
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