Kansas at Oklahoma Basketball Preview: Can KU Get Right on the Road?
It’s another early Saturday tip on the road for Kansas as the Jayhawks head to Norman to face an Oklahoma squad riding a three-game losing streak but has proven glimpses of a strong play (just ask Alabama).
Opponent Overview
Team: Oklahoma
Record: 12-12
KenPom: 53
Line: TBD
Team Form
The Sooners have that 93-69 victory over Alabama in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge to end January, which prevented OU from losing seven straight. Oklahoma dropped the three games prior to the Bama victory (Oklahoma State, Baylor, and TCU) and have lost all three contests since that game (Oklahoma State again, West Virginia, and Baylor again).
Kansas will hope that the Sooners don’t break their second, current three-game losing streak the way they broke the first, hitting 9-13 from deep and shooting 54% from two-point range. It also doesn’t get any easier for OU after this as its next two are K-State at home and at Texas.
Players to Watch
The unquestioned leader is Grant Sherfield, who is leading the team with 16.8 points per game and 3.4 assists. Sherfield takes nearly 30% of his team’s shots when he’s in the game and is shooting 43% from three. In the first Kansas meeting, Sherfield led all scorers with 25 points on 8-11 shooting from two.
Jalen Hill is the only other player that rivals Sherfield in terms of minutes on the court, but his production is hit or miss. Hill exploded for 26 points against Alabama but only scored in double digits once in OU’s last six losses.
In game one against Kansas, it was Milos Uzan (11 points and five rebounds), Tanner Groves (10 points, nine boards), and Sam Godwin off the bench (12 points, seven rebounds) that led the way for the Sooners.
Matchups to Watch
The Sooners were successful in making the first matchup ugly, holding Kansas to just 37.5% shooting from two-point range. And this wasn’t a big-man problem. KJ Adams shot 8-13 on the way to 22 points and Zach Clemence added 10 more. Instead, it was Gradey Dick, Jalen Wilson, and Kevin McCullar who shot a combined 4-19 from two.
This is a theme for OU. Oklahoma is second in the Big 12 in opponent two-point percentage during conference play at 46.8%. But its defensive efficiency is ninth because opponents are shooting 34.4% from three, and are anywhere from 7-10th in opponent turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and free-throw rate.
Similarly, Oklahoma’s best offensive ability is scoring from the paint, and KU’s interior defense was dreadful in Lawrence (the Sooners shot 62% from two in game one). The keys for Kansas should be similar to Texas based on the style of play. The Jayhawks can’t give up easy driving lanes or get easily beaten off the dribble forcing help and leaving open shooters on the perimeter.
Prediction
Given the last effort we saw on the road, it’s easy to be wary of this game. Oklahoma plays better at home and if Kansas tries to sleepwalk through another early start, the Jayhawks are going to get beat.
Oklahoma was able to execute its game plan the first time around, and you have to think Self is coming with a few counters to ensure that doesn’t happen again. The other factor is that the Sooners defense just doesn’t turn teams over or grab a ton of offensive rebounds, while giving up a decent amount. So even if KU doesn’t shoot it as well as Oklahoma, it will have more opportunities if it’s not turning the ball over and can get multiple shots on possessions.
The Jayhawks can’t afford to drop any more games that it is expected to win, and this is one that you have to win if you want to remain competitive in the league race and for a one or two seed in the NCAA Tournament. I think Wilson bounces back and he gets enough contribution from guys like Joseph Yesufu and Ernest Udeh to grab the road win.
Kansas 80, Oklahoma 71
Prediction record
12-10-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 78-72 KU | Actual: 88-80 KU
