Kansas at TCU Basketball Preview: Two Deciding Factors in the Rematch
An emotional comeback win in Allen Fieldhouse over Baylor kept Kansas tied for first with Texas in the Big 12 standings. Now the Jayhawks must go back on the road 48 hours later against a TCU team that beat Kansas by 23 in Lawrence and now has its full team back and healthy.
Opponent Overview
Team: TCU
Record: 18-9
KenPom: 19
Line: TCU -1.5
Team Form
Mike Miles hyperextended his knee four minutes into TCU’s SEC/Big 12 Challenge game against Mississippi State, which would cause him to miss the rest of that game and the next five. TCU would go 1-5 in that stretch, with the only win coming at home to West Virginia on January 31. Big man Eddie Lampkin has also been in and out of the lineup with an injury during that stretch.
But both played Saturday against Oklahoma State and the result was a 100-75 beat down of the Cowboys. It’s a return to how the Horn Frogs looked before the Miles injury when TCU won three of four, including over K-State and KU. KenPom has TCU as a one-point loser to Kansas, but then winning its final three games of the year, including at home against Texas.
Players to Watch
The way TCU took a nosedive without Miles cemented what we already knew, which is that he is the unquestioned leader of the team. He was good but far from perfect in his return over the weekend. He scored 15 points – including going 6-9 from the line – but he had five turnovers to just two assists.
Two of the Horned Frogs who picked up the scoring with Miles out were Damion Baugh and Emanuel Miller. Baugh scored 16 or more points in four of five games from the Mississippi State game through Baylor, and then after just seven points against Iowa State, he had another 16 Saturday. Miller has also scored in double figures in five of the seven games since the Miles injury.
The player that torched the Jayhawks the most in Lawrence was Shahada Wells. Wells scored 17 points on 4-4 shooting from two and 3-4 from three and also had four steals. It is still his season high in points and at the time was only the fourth time he had scored in double figures (in 19 games). Since then, Wells has scored 10+ points in five of eight games.
Matchups to Watch
Three things need to happen if KU doesn’t want to see TCU repeat its performance in January.
One is that Kansas has to limit its turnovers. TCU leads the Big 12 in steal percentage and is second in forced-turnover percentage, only behind Iowa State by 0.2 percent. It’s how TCU’s defensive efficiency ranks so high, because the Horned Frogs are letting opponents shoot nearly 52% from two during conference play. In the first matchup, Kansas turned it over 17 times, nine coming from steals, which led to a ton of fast-break points for the Horned Frogs.
The second is Dajuan Harris has to score. The stat was floating around Twitter on Saturday and I didn't see how had it first or I would credit them, but Kansas is undefeated when Harris scores three or more points and 1-5 when he scores two or less points. In the first TCU game, Harris was scoreless and just 0-4 from the floor. Safe to say Harris needs to look to score early and often.
The final is somewhat out of the Jayhawks’ control: 3-point luck. TCU only shoots 29% from three on the year and is last in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting at that same percentage. Yet the Horned Frogs hit eight of 15 (53%) in the first meeting with Kansas. TCU doesn’t take many shots from deep at all, but the ones in Allen were deadly for KU. TCU also went 8-15 from three on Saturday against OSU, so the Jayhawks will hope the Frogs got it out of their systems.
One of the most fascinating matchups in this game will be in the paint. TCU leads the Big 12 in 2-point percentage during conference play at 56%, while Kansas is the No. 1 2-point defense in the league, holding Big 12 opponents to 47%. Something has to give here.
Prediction
Of course the Horned Frogs are at full strength in time for this game. And this is a dangerous team at full strength. But Kansas will be hungry for revenge and is playing much better basketball now than it did the first time on January 21. Those were the days when Wilson was scoring 30 points and no one else was scoring more than 10.
If Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar can bring their defense from the second half against Baylor, it’s hard to see TCU getting much done offensively. KU also needs a bounce-back game from KJ Adams, who only had four points on 1-6 shooting in round one.
Kansas likely will lose again before the end of the regular season. That’s life in the Big 12. And it very well could be in Fort Worth Monday night. That wouldn’t shock me. But I’m riding with the Jayhawks to get revenge.
Kansas 73, TCU 68
Prediction record
14-11-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 79-75 KU | Actual: 87-71 KU
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