Kansas at UCF Basketball Preview
The Kansas Jayhawks will get their first taste of the new world of Big 12 basketball when it takes on UCF in Orlando Wednesday. It’s the first time these two programs have ever met, and the only time KU will face the Knights in the regular season.
Opponent Overview
Team: UCF
Record: 9-4
KenPom: 86
Line: KU -6.5
Team Form
UCF got a welcome-to-the-Big-12 moment on Saturday in its conference opener when the Knights traveled to Manhattan and lost to K-State 77-52. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for UCF, but two of those wins were against teams in the 330s at KenPom and the other was No. 232 Maine.
KSU was the third top-100 team the Knights have faced this year and they have lost all three. The other two were a 16-point loss to Miami in November and a two-point loss to Ole Miss a month ago. UCF also has a home loss to Stetson on the resume. The best win is against No. 140 South Dakota State by three on a neutral floor, followed by Lipscomb at home.
Players to Watch
Ball State transfer Jaylin Sellers has been one of the best scorers in the Big 12 so far this season, averaging 17.8 points per game. This is thanks to a hot start to the season in November where he had four 20+ point games, including a 34-point outing against Stetson. He has cooled off a bit of late, not scoring above 19 points since then, but he’s still an absolute threat to light up the scoreboard. His first conference game was a struggle, as Sellers only scored eight points on 3-13 shooting.
Fellow guard Darius Johnson is second on the team with 13.9 ppg and leads the Knights in assists with 3.5 per game. But he’s also turnover prone, giving the ball away 3.2 times per game, including five times against KSU. Though he tries to make up for it with nearly two steals per game.
Marchelus Avery is the better scorer of the post players at 10.6 per game, but Kansas has to be aware of 7-footer Ibrahima Diallo, who is third in the entire country in block percentage at 14.2%. Diallo has blocked 28 shots already this year in 13 games.
Matchups to Watch
The offensive numbers aren’t pretty for UCF. The Knights are in the 200s nationally in two-point and three-point percentage and don’t rack up many assists. UCF also turns it over on nearly 18% of possessions. Against KSU, the Knights shot just 38.6% from two and 24% from three while turning it over 13 times.
But somewhat similarly to TCU, UCF plays fast and forces a ton of turnovers, mainly through steals. And as mentioned above with Diallo, they will block shots. The issue is the Knights get the ball stolen from them almost as much as they steal the ball. Can KU take care of the ball better than it did against TCU? Costly turnovers could keep this closer than it otherwise would be.
Opponents have also been able to get to the line at will against UCF. KSU went to the line 23 times to UCF’s five trips. Though that was an outlier, as the Knights are also excellent at taking trips to the charity stripe. Unless UCF shoots higher than its average, it will need to win the turnover and free-throw battle to have a chance.
Prediction
The top two teams in the country — Purdue and Houston — fell to unranked teams on the road Tuesday. And we’ve already seen what can happen in the Big 12, especially on the road. Kansas has to take UCF seriously to avoid the same fate. And I’m a bit surprised the line is as close as it is given who these two teams are.
I’m looking for a bounce-back game from Kevin McCullar here. After a poor shooting game Saturday, and with UCF controlling the paint, KU could use McCullar scoring from 15 feet and out and get to the line with his aggressive drives.
It would be ideal if KU could be in control throughout, giving the bench added minutes and the starters a bit more rest ahead of a top-10 showdown with Oklahoma. In a gauntlet of a conference, you have to take chances to get breathers whenever you can. I don’t know if it’s a blowout, but I think Kansas wins this one relatively easily and covers the spread.
Kansas 78, UCF 66
Record ATS: 8-6
Record Straight Up: 13-1
(Last game: Kansas 83, TCU 81)
