TCU vs Kansas: Big 12 Tournament Preview
If it feels like you just read a preview or two about TCU, it's because you probably did. Obviously, these two teams played each other twice in three days last week. Kansas was favored to win both fairly easily, but ended with an even split that came anything but easily. Game one in Fort Worth saw the two teams play roughly even, if ugly, through one half, with the Horned Frogs pulling away in the second to keep Kansas at arm's length the rest of the way. KU dropped that game 74-64, tying the game against Baylor in Waco for the 2nd worst margin of defeat this season (behind the Kentucky game). Game two wasn't much prettier, but Kansas got the result in Lawrence. After jumping out to an early lead, TCU came back and kept it close, though never got the lead as the Jayhawks took a 72-68 victory.
To quickly recap how these teams got here, TCU played Texas in Thursday's first game at the T-Mobile Center. They were down by 18 at the half to the Longhorns, but scratched and clawed their way back, and came away with a 65-60 win as Texas just couldn't seem to buy a bucket down the stretch. Kansas, of course, blew the doors off West Virginia. While the Mountaineers played it closer in the 2nd half, they never made it too competitive and the Jayhawks cruised, 87-63.
If the two games last week were an accurate depiction, it seems TCU's physicality is a tough matchup for a KU team that, unlike many years, doesn't really have the size, strength and athleticism to overpower just about anyone they want. They're one of the best rebounding teams in the country, particularly on the offensive end. KU did a better job of keeping them off the offensive glass in game two, but shot the ball poorly while allowing TCU to make 56% of their twos and keep the game close. They'll need something else, either better defense or smoother offense, in addition to that rebounding effort, if they want an easier time in game three.
Prediction
Kansas was able to give some of their main guys, particularly David McCormack, some extra rest yesterday because of the way their game played out. With TCU having to scrape their way back from a huge deficit, three starters clocked 31+ minutes. With this only being the second day these teams are playing, that may not be a huge factor, but it might make a difference down the stretch. Self just gameplanned for this team twice last week, and although Jamie Dixon is no slouch on the other sideline, I'll take Self in that strategic head to head. While TCU's physicality will still be a concern, KU should shoot better than they did in their 4 point win in Lawrence, and I think they'll come out ahead here, even if I don't expect it to look great.
Kansas 75, TCU 68
