Kansas' NCAA Tournament Bracketology Projections Following Regular Season

Kansas wrapped up the regular season Saturday on a positive note, defeating rival Kansas State 104-85 on senior night at Allen Fieldhouse. Darryn Peterson scored 27 points, his second most of the season, while Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. combined for 40 points.

That gave the Jayhawks a 22-9 overall record and a third-place finish in a strong Big 12 conference at 12-6, behind Arizona and Houston. Kansas will begin the Big 12 Tournament Thursday at 8:30 p.m. CT in Kansas City against either No. 6 TCU, No. 11 Colorado or No. 14 Oklahoma State.

In recent weeks, the Jayhawks have been hovering between the No. 3, 4 and 5 seed lines in NCAA Tournament projections, so the Big 12 Tournament could be a good chance to pick up resume-boosting wins heading into March Madness.

Here's a look at the latest projections, along with Kansas' resume and what it needs to do to move up a seed line.

Kansas in NCAA Tournament Bracketology

Darryn Peterson Kansas Basketball — Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Desert Financial Arena. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Opinions differ on Kansas' NCAA Tournament seed following the regular season, which adds to the intrigue of conference tournament week.

The Jayhawks are a No. 4 seed in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, but CBS Sports bumped them down to a No. 5 seed in Monday's updated projection.

That's in line with the general consensus on BracketMatrix.com, which takes into account 79 different projections, and has Kansas as the last No. 4 seed with an average seed of 4.05. A few projections on BracketMatrix even have Kansas as a No. 3 seed, but that's evened out by others who consider the Jayhawks a No. 5 seed.

Here's where Kansas stands in several relevant NCAA Tournament metrics following the regular season.

NET: 19
KenPom: 19
Torvik: 19
Wins Above Bubble (WAB): +5.9 (16th)
Basketball Power Index (BPI): 19
KPI: 9
Strength of record: 18
Quad 1 record: 8-8
Quad 2 record: 7-1
Quad 3 record: 4-0
Quad 4 record: 3-0

Can the Jayhawks move up a seed line?

Flory Bidunga Kansas Basketball — Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) against the Arizona Wildcats at Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 9, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kansas' ceiling might be limited by the NET rankings, KenPom, Torvik and BPI, which agree the Jayhawks are No. 19 in the nation, effectively a No. 5 seed.

Going off the NET, it could be tough for Kansas to catch CBS' projected No. 4 seeds like Virginia (13), Gonzaga (5), Texas Tech (15) and Vanderbilt (16), or the projected No. 3 seeds in Nebraska (12), Iowa State (8), Purdue (10) and Alabama (17).

But it's hard to ignore the Jayhawks' strong record in Quad 1 and 2. Kansas is one of just 11 teams in the nation with eight Quad 1 wins, and only six teams have more Quad 1 wins than Kansas, including Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Nebraska and Michigan State.

Compare Kansas' 15-9 record in Quad 1 and 2 to Gonzaga (10-2), Virginia (15-4), Iowa State (16-6) and Alabama (16-8), and there's not much separating teams on the No. 4 and 5 seed lines.

In order to move ahead of Iowa State and Texas Tech, Kansas would likely need a better finish than both in the Big 12 Tournament. Fortunately for the Jayhawks, one of Iowa State or Texas Tech would be eliminated if they face each other Thursday, and the winner would advance to a difficult matchup against No. 1 Arizona on Friday.

Elsewhere, Kansas will be rooting for a Gonzaga loss in the WCC Tournament. Gonzaga has already lost to Saint Mary's this season, and Santa Clara is no slouch, either. Vanderbilt would have to face No. 1 Florida in its second SEC Tournament game, a loss that would also benefit Kansas, along with Virginia falling to No. 3 Miami in its second ACC Tournament matchup.

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