Kansas Basketball’s Bracketology Projections Before Regular Season Finale

The Jayhawks are running out of chances to strengthen their postseason resume.

Feb 23, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self reacts in the final seconds of the game against the Houston Cougars during the second half of the game at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Kansas has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country this season. The Jayhawks have risen as high as No. 8 in the AP Top 25, but they have also spent multiple weeks unranked.

Come Selection Sunday, the committee will have a difficult decision to make regarding Bill Self's squad, which boasts several marquee victories but also a number of bad losses. The most recent example came earlier this week in an upset defeat to Arizona State.

Even with an unspectacular 21-9 record, many bracketologists still view Kansas as a high seed. Where do analysts place the Jayhawks heading into the regular season finale against Kansas State?

Kansas Generally Staying Put as No. 4 Seed

Most outlets have the Jayhawks penciled in as a No. 4 seed right now. The chances of the program jumping to a three-seed line are becoming increasingly less likely, given that the team has lost four of its last six in conference play.

Some notable websites placing KU as a four seed are ESPN (Joe Lunardi) and CBS Sports. Both of these brackets have something in common that Jayhawk fans will not like to hear.

In each bracketology example, waiting for Kansas in a potential No. 4 versus No. 5 seed contest in the Round of 32 is John Calipari and Arkansas. Of course, the Razorbacks have accounted for two of the school's past three NCAA Tournament exits — the first in an upset in 2023, and the second in the Round of 64 a year ago (not to mention the Liberty Bowl in 2022 on the gridiron).

It goes without saying that avoiding Arkansas this year would be a sigh of relief for the team. Regardless, this group still has a lot to correct in the coming weeks before March Madness begins.

Mar 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Tre White (3) shoves assistant coach Tony Bland after being pulled away from an altercation with the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

How Can Kansas Climb to a No. 3 Seed?

The majority of prognosticators are expecting a victory over K-State in the regular season finale and a win or two in the Big 12 Tournament before an eventual elimination. If that result goes down, a No. 4 seed will be almost inevitable.

However, knocking off a few premier opponents in the league tournament could do wonders for KU's resume. The Jayhawks would benefit greatly if Iowa State and/or Texas Tech lose today to give them a double bye next week, rather than a No. 5 seed in the Big 12 standings, which would force the team to suit up for a second-round matchup.

Self and Co. cannot realistically expect a No. 3 seed or higher without a championship appearance in the conference tourney. Bowing out after one win like it did last year simply won't suffice. Ultimately, a No. 4 seed is the projected outcome right now, but don't be surprised if the Jayhawks get hot at the right time.