Kansas vs Baylor Basketball Preview: A College GameDay Battle for First Place
Kansas went on the road and beat an Oklahoma State team that, before Tuesday, possessed the longest active win streak in the Big 12. Now the Jayhawks return home after two games on the road to face the new active win-streak leader in Baylor (four). And College GameDay will be in the Fieldhouse to take in this top-10 matchup.
Opponent Overview
Team: Baylor
Record: 20-6
KenPom: 10
Line: TBD
Team Form
Baylor has had a favorable stretch over the last four wins. Three of those were at home and all four were against the current bottom four teams in the league. Still, it’s the way the Bears have won that is impressive. Only one of those games (the lone road game at TCU) was decided by single digits. And Baylor scored 79+ points in three of those games. We know by now that double-digit wins in this conference are hard to come by.
But it’s not just this two-week stretch that BU has figured out. Baylor is 10-1 in its last 11 (9-1 in Big 12 games during that stretch), with the lone loss coming by five at Texas. The 0-3 start to conference play may as well have been a season ago. This is a different team now.
Players to Watch
He won’t wow you on the stat line, but we have to start by talking about Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. After tearing multiple ligaments in his knee last year, JTT returned to the court four games ago. And while the numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page — 25 points and 18 rebounds in four games — he completely changes the makeup of the team on both ends of the court. He is a former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, after all.
But Baylor is known for its guard play. Adam Flagler is the reigning Big 12 Player of the Week and Keyonte George is one of the best freshmen in the country. The guard on the hottest streak right now, though, is LJ Cryer. In the last two games, Cryer scored 49 points while hitting 12 of 17 from three. Kansas fans are well aware of his ability here. Cryer led the Bears in scoring in the first meeting with 22 points while going 5-11 from three.
Matchups to Watch
Baylor has the No. 1 offense in the country in terms of efficiency at KenPom, and the Bears do it in multiple ways. Baylor is in the top 100 in three-point percentage, two-point percentage, and free-throw percentage. BU’s offensive efficiency in Big 12 play is eight points higher than No. 2 Texas and Baylor has been the best three-point-shooting team at 36.6%.
What helps the efficiency even further is the fact that Baylor gets a ton of looks through offensive boards. BU is 11th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (36%) and did even better in game one against Kansas, grabbing 17 offensive boards for 40% of its misses. That made up for the Bears only going 9-30 from three and 14-32 from inside the arc. That, combined with 15 Kansas turnovers, was the difference in the game.
Baylor is not as prolific on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears rank 78th in defensive efficiency and are allowing teams to shoot 52% from two-point range. KU actually shot 57.6% from two in the first meeting, but it wasn’t from the sources you may think. KJ Adams was 1-5 from two and Ernest Udeh was the only other big to play, and he didn’t attempt a field goal.
You would think the presence of Tchamwa Tchatchoua would change this, but it hasn’t yet, at least. TCU shot 60% from two, while Oklahoma shot 58% and WVU 53%. The Jayhawks should get their chances from the paint, but the only way to capitalize on that is by not turning the ball over and giving up offensive rebounds on the other end.
Prediction
Baylor’s four-game win streak may be the best right now in the Big 12, but Kansas is second with three straight wins. And you could argue this is the best Kansas has looked as a team all season. Kevin McCullar and Gradey Dick are both coming off what could arguably be their best games of the year, and Udeh has provided a similar presence to Tchamwa Tchatchoua in the post.
Injuries are a reason to be concerned. Both McCullar and Dajuan Harris tweaked ankles in the Oklahoma State game and Kansas needs them both to be healthy and productive. But with the chance to eliminate a team from first place in the conference standings, the opportunity to get revenge from an earlier loss, and with ESPN’s College GameDay in the house, it’s hard to pick against Kansas here.
This is a game that the Jayhawks have historically won and Bill Self is excellent at analyzing the film to identify what went wrong in an earlier matchup and creating a game plan to fix the issue. KU’s strategy, along with a greater contribution from the bench – KU had just two bench points in the January matchup – should be the difference here.
Kansas 79, Baylor 75
Prediction record
14-10-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 73-70 KU | Actual: 87-576 KU
