Kansas vs Howard NCAA Tournament Basketball Preview: How Dajuan Harris Could Take Over
The best week of the year is here and Kansas has the road paved out that it needs to be the first repeat champions since Florida in 2006 and 2007. The first test is the No. 16 seed Howard from the MEAC.
Opponent Overview
Team: Howard
Record: 22-12
KenPom: 215
Line: KU -21.5
Team Form
Howard is 22-12 but only three of those losses have come in the 2023 calendar year. But the Bison started the season 4-8. Some of that was because it was playing quality teams like Kentucky (95-63 loss), Yale (86-40 loss), and VCU (70-60 loss), but they also fell to George Washington (218 in KenPom) and Hamptom (351 in KenPom).
Howard went 11-3 in the MEAC, winning the regular season by a game over North Carolina Central, and then it was a 65-64 win over Norfolk State in the MEAC title game that tok Howard dancing. The Bison are on a five-game winning streak and had a nine-game winning streak earlier this year before dropping two in a row.
Players to Watch
Howard is led by 5-11 guard Elijah Hawkins, who is both an excellent passer and a sharpshooter. Hawkins averages nearly six assists per game and is also shooting 45% from three on 104 attempts this year, which is 24th best nationally. But as I’ll get to a bit later, he is one of several Bison with a turnover problem.
The Bison are balanced, with six players averaging at least 8.8 points per game. Down low, KJ Adams and Ernest Udeh will have to contend with Steve Settle, who is 6-10 but only 175 pounds. But the Bison’s second-best player is arguably 6-6 freshman Shy Odom who is not a three-point threat but decent in the paint and is the only offensive rebounding threat on the roster.
Matchups to Watch
The most glaring concern for Howard is its carelessness. The Bison turn the ball over 22.9% of offensive possessions, which is 356th nationally, and it gives up steals 12.1% of the time, which is 357th. That doesn’t bode well when you have Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar guarding you.
Howard is a good three-point shooting team (37%) on the year, it just doesn’t shoot them very often (36% of its field goal attempts are threes). It does most of its work inside the arc and a big part of that is its offensive rebounding. The Bison are a top-30 offensive rebounding team nationally, but they also give up a ton of offensive rebounds on the defensive end. If Adams, Jalen Wilson, and McCullar can win their rebounding battles, KU should be in great shape.
Prediction
What we don’t know is whether Bill Self will be on the sidelines – he’s expected to rejoin the team, but it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to take the first round easy as he gets back healthy – and how healthy Kevin McCullar will be. Thankfully for Kansas, I don’t think it should matter too much on Thursday.
For Kansas, this is a mindset and momentum game. Come in, use any frustration about your placement in this bracket to positive gain, and be dominant and see the ball go through the net to get confidence up for Saturday. It feels like it’s especially important to get Gradey Dick going early and him feeling good as a freshman before bigger games lay ahead.
That’s not to say Howard has absolutely zero chance. But I think Dajaun Harris makes life hard on Hawkins and the Jayhawks are able to get out and run in transition.
Kansas 84, Howard 61
Prediction record
18-13-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 77-74 KU | Actual: 76-56 UT
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