Kansas vs Iowa State Big 12 Tournament Basketball Preview: Toughness Will Be Tested
Kansas was without Bill Self and didn’t have a fully healthy Kevin McCullar, but the Jayhawks were able to keep West Virginia at arms’ length and put the Mountaineers away in the quarterfinals.
The reward? Facing an Iowa State team that just beat Baylor in back-to-back games for a chance to move on to the Big 12 Championship game.
Opponent Overview
Team: Iowa State
Record: 19-12
KenPom: 19
Line: KU -4.5
Team Form
Iowa State hasn’t beaten a team not named the Baylor Bears since February 15. The Cyclones lost four straight heading into the regular season finale before beating Baylor by 15 to end the regular season. It was also around that time that Caleb Grill left the team.
While ISU only beat Baylor by six the second time around, the Cyclones were the tougher team. Iowa State grabbed 21(!) offensive rebounds and had nine steals while shooting 55% from inside the arc. It was Baylor hitting 14 threes, including Jalen Bridges going 7-8 on his own, that kept this from being a blowout.
Players to Watch
Gabe Kalscheur is this team’s best scorer, and he’s riding six straight double-figure scoring games. On Thursday, he scored a team-high 24 while hitting six of the team’s eight threes. He stretches the defense more than anyone else on the team. But teams can attack him on defense and get him in foul trouble. Kalscheur had picked up three or more fouls in each of the last seven games. Though to his credit, he’s yet to foul out.
Jaren Holmes has been nearly a strong on offense of late and he does it from close range and getting to the basket. However, while he’s just a 33% 3-point shooter on the year, Kansas fans might remember him going 4-6 from deep in the matchup in Ames. Tre King has also stepped up in Gill’s place with a couple of strong games.
But the player that has probably given Jayhawk fans nightmares the most is big man Osun Osunniyi. Osunniyi has scored in double figures seven times since Big 12 began and two of those were against Kansas, where he averaged 13.5 points and 5.5 rebounds.
Matchups to Watch
The scouting report for Iowa State starts where it did for West Virginia: keep them off the offensive glass. ISU is in the top 30 in offensive rebound percentage nationally at 33.7% and the Cyclones grabbed 63.6% (almost unheard of) against Baylor Thursday. Kansas also has to win the turnover battle. Iowa State is one of the best nationally at turning opponents over and the breakdown is simple. When KU won in Lawrence, it only had 12 turnovers and turned ISU over 13 times. In Ames when it lost, Kansas turned it over 20 times and only forced 10 from ISU.
Iowa State is also not a great 3-point shooting team, but they have guys like Kalscheur who can get hot in a hurry. But the X-factor in a close game might be free-throw shooting. ISU is 318th nationally in its free-throw percentage, but it did go 10-14 from the line on Thursday. Meanwhile, Kansas struggled mightily on the charity stripe against West Virginia, just making five of 12.
Prediction
It was great to see Kevin McCullar battling through some obvious pain from his back injury, but it’s unclear how he’s going to feel tomorrow. And his presence – especially on the boards and on defense – is going to be big against a tough and physical team like Iowa State.
The Cyclones are playing inspired again and are clearly bought in and gelling. Not having Bill Self for the rest of the weekend hurts – and he cannot be replaced – but Norm Roberts has proven how great of a fill-in he can be, and Dajuan Harris keeps this team steady and focused on the court.
The atmosphere should be fantastic. Iowa State is probably the team that can most rival Kansas’ crowd and energy in The T-Mobile Center, and given how Iowa State is playing, I expect this to be a close game. But Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick look to have broken out of their funks and I think Kansas makes enough big plays to pull out another win.
Kansas 71, Iowa State 66
Prediction record
17-12-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 79-72 KU | Actual: 78-61 KU
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