Kansas vs Seton Hall Basketball Preview
While the Big 12-SEC Challenge gets most of the hype in late January, first the conference faces off against the Big East. Last year, that meant Kansas traveling to St. John’s and coming away with a 95-75 win behind Christian Braun’s 31 points.
This year, a fellow New York/New Jersey team is the opponent, but this time Seton Hall is coming to Lawrence. Here’s what the Jayhawks will be up against Thursday night.
Opponent Overview
Team: Seton Hall
Record: 4-3
KenPom: 57
Line: KU -9.5 (opened -7.5)
Team Form
The Pirates are now led by Shaheen Holloway, former Seton Hall guard and most recently the head coach of St. Peter’s magical Elite 8 run a year ago. Seton Hall started strong, going 4-1 with a nice win over Memphis and a lone loss to Iowa.
But the Pirates have since dropped its last two games, first to Oklahoma and most recently a 60-55 loss to Siena. And the scoring has been the bigger issue than the defense and the difference between the Pirates winning and losing. Seton Hall has failed to score 70 points in all three losses and has scored more than 70 in all four wins.
Seton Hall has not been efficient from two-point range, shooting just 46.9%, and while it’s shooting a solid 35% from three, it only takes them 34.3% of the time, which is 257th nationally.
Players to Watch
One thing about the Pirates is that they are experienced. All of Seton Hall’s meaningful players are either juniors or seniors.
Senior and former Clemson guard Al-Amir Dawes is leading the team in scoring at 11.9 points per game and is a major threat from three, shooting 50% on nearly five attempts per game. Junior guard and Louisville transfer Dre Davis is also averaging 11.4 ppg and 3.8 rebounds, but is the inverse of Dawes. Davis is hitting 56.5% of his two-pointers but just 25% from three.
Senior 6-10 forward Tyrese Samuel is leading the Pirates in rebounding at 6.6 per game while also being Seton Hall’s only other double-digit scorer at 10.9 a game. He’s also averaging nearly a block per game in 20 minutes. Kansas is going to have to body Samuel when the Pirates have the ball because Samuel is in the top 20 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Matchups to Watch
There are two aspects that make this a tough matchup for KU and another that plays into the Jayhawks’ hands.
Seton Hall doesn’t shoot it great but one thing the Pirates excel at is getting to the free-throw line. Seton Hall has attempted 30 or more free throws four times already this season and its low is 13 attempts against Iowa earlier this year. Luckier for opponents is the fact that SHU is only making 69% of them. It will be fascinating to see how many calls the Pirates get in Allen Fieldhouse, but also Kansas better be disciplined or else they will be in foul trouble early and often.
The Pirates also are in the top 45 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, so KU will have a challenge in keeping SHU off the glass and ending possessions with just one shot.
Countering the extra charity points and offensive boards the Pirates rack up is the fact that Seton Hall has turned it over on 22.4% of its possessions so far this year, which is 313th nationally. While free throws could keep Seton Hall in the game, the combination of Allen Fieldhouse and the Jayhawks’ quick hands and ability to run could make this an uphill battle all night for the Pirates.
Prediction
This feels like one of those matchups with a wide variance where if these two teams played 10 times, you would see a bunch of different outcomes. I would be more worried if Seton Hall were more efficient from the floor, but the potential shooting woes and turnovers negate some of the benefits of the Pirates getting to the line and rebounding so well.
I am still worried about the post play and corralling Seton Hall’s bigs, but I think Dajuan Harris leads the break and defense and Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick shoot well enough at home to get the win.
Kansas 77, Seton Hall 69
Prediction record
4-4 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 87-55 KU | Actual: 84-58 KU
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