Kansas vs. Tennessee Basketball Preview: A Battle 4 Atlantis Title is on the Line
It hasn’t always been pretty, but Kansas is in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. And the reward for Bobby Pettiford’s overtime winner against Wisconsin is a matchup against No. 22 Tennessee to take home some early-season hardware.
Opponent Overview
Team: Tennessee
Record: 4-1
KenPom: 6
Line: TBD
Team Form
The Volunteers had high expectations coming into the year and have been alright so far, but the loss to 3-3 Colorado is a bit of a head scratcher. Still, the metrics like KenPom and Torvik rate Tennessee more favorably than its AP ranking. The Vols are No. 6 in both KenPom and Torvik and are slightly lower—though still ahead of Kansas—in Sagarin.
After the Colorado loss, Tennessee blasted Florida Gulf Coast 81-50 and used a big second half to beat Butler in the Battle 4 Atlantis opener. But like Kansas, it took overtime for Tennessee to make the title game, as USC pushed them in regulation but the Vols ended up winning by seven.
Players to Watch
Arguably Tennessee’s best player has yet to step foot on the court in the Bahamas. Josiah Jordan-James was held out against Butler and USC due to lingering soreness coming from an off-season knee injury. This is big, as Jordan-James is leading the Vols in points (13.7 ppg) and rebounds (6 rpg).
Tennessee’s backcourt is a familiar one with senior Santiago Vescovi and sophomore Zakai Zeigler, and both are averaging 10 points and close to four assists so far on the year. A new addition to the Vols’ roster is Indiana State transfer Tyreke Key. Key racked up 1,500 points at ISU and so far this year, he’s second on the team in scoring at 11.8 ppg and grabbing nearly four rebounds per game. KU will need to know where he is on the perimeter because Key is shooting 39% from behind the arc on 4.5 attempts per game.
Stepping up the last two games in Jordan-James’ absence has been freshman Julian Phillips. Phillips scored 11 points to go with four boards and two assists against Butler and then exploded for 25 points against USC, while getting to the line 12 times and knocking down 10 of them.
Matchups to Watch
It’s going to be another defensive battle more like the Wisconsin game than the NC State matchup. Tennessee is No. 2 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric and Colorado is the only team so far to score more than 70 points against the Vols. Like Wisconsin, teams are shooting poorly from behind the arc against Tennessee, only hitting 26.7% so far. But the Vols will also pressure opponents, stealing the ball 17.5% of the time, good for third nationally.
It’s not as pretty on offense. Tennessee is just shooting 47.2% from two (242nd nationally) and 29.9% from three (274th nationally). But that doesn’t stop the Vols from shooting a ton of threes. Forty-five percent of Tennessee’s shots came from beyond the arc and 69% of its baskets come off assists, so the ball does not stick much with this offense.
Prediction
The status of Jordan-James is a big one in giving Tennessee a leg up in this matchup. The other question is going to be whose legs can hold up on the third straight day of games. Both teams only go eight deep with regular minutes, so it should be pretty even in that regard.
The difference for me is that this Kansas team has already proven that it can find ways to win when things do not look good. Jalen Wilson has been incredible and Gradey Dick has had flashes of being able to catch fire. I’ll say the Jayhawks again do just enough to win in a close game, using that championship pedigree to earn the first championship of the 2022-23 season.
Kansas 74, Tennessee 71
Prediction record
3-3 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 70-62 | Actual: 69-68
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