Kansas vs Texas Basketball Preview: Why KU Must Attack the Rim
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Kansas laid an egg up in Ames on Saturday against Iowa State, scoring the fewest amount of points in a Big 12 game in the Bill Self era. Now it has two days to bounce back at home as it takes on first place Texas in a game the Jayhawks need to stay in the Big 12 title race.
Opponent Overview
Team: Texas
Record: 19-4
KenPom: 9
Line: KU -4
Team Form
Outside of a disappointing performance in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, Texas has been playing arguably the best basketball in the conference of late. It's a testament to the job Rodney Terry has done in an incredibly tough situation. The Longhorns have won four straight league games, with the last loss coming in Ames on January 17.
The four wins were against West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and most recently Kansas State in Manhattan, where UT was down 36-25 at half but ended up winning by three thanks to a 44-point second half. The win Saturday was huge as Texas has a tough remaining schedule. Along with playing Kansas twice, the Longhorns still have to go on the road at Baylor, TCU, and Tech (ask ISU how its trip to Lubbock went) and has Iowa State at home.
Players to Watch
Marcus Carr is in his sixth year of college and second with Texas. This year, he’s showing why he was such a highly pursued transfer from Minnesota. After a disappointing 11.4 points per game a year ago, Carr is averaging 16.4 a game while boosting his two-point efficiency from 43.5% to 51% and his three-point shooting from 33.8% to 38.7%.
Kansas should be familiar with most of this senior group. Timmy Allen, Christian Bishop, and Dylan Disu make up the front court—and Brock Cunningham also giving some minutes off the bench—with Allen as the biggest scoring threat of the group.
Sophomore Tyrese Hunter is now in Austin after spending last year in Iowa State, and while his offensive production is about the same, he hasn’t been as impactful in the passing game or causing turnovers with steals. But the senior guard who has been on a tear lately is New Mexico State transfer Sir’Jabari Rice. Rice had back-to-back 21-point games against Tennessee and Baylor (his season high) and added 14 points and 10 rebounds Saturday against Kansas State.
Matchups to Watch
Despite not having a single player 6-10 or taller, Texas makes its living offensively inside the arc. More than half of the Longhorns’ points come from two-point range, and Texas is shooting 56% from two, which is 16th best in the country.
Where UT’s lack of height comes into play is on the boards. Texas is eighth in the conference in offensive-rebounding percentage in Big 12 play and is fifth in allowing offensive boards. Though the Longhorns are a decent shot-blocking team, coming in right ahead of KU in this category. This will be an interesting matchup for Kansas’ bigs. Smaller, athletic bigs look to be a better matchup for KJ Adams on the surface, and I’m curious to see if someone like Ernest Udeh can take advantage of his height. He's going to need to with Zach Clemence potentially sidelined with a knee injury, unless Kansas goes super small.
This is not a game to settle for threes. In Texas’ four losses, the Longhorns let their opponent shoot better than 60% from two-point range twice (KSU and Tennessee), Iowa State shot 50%, and Illinois shot 46%. Can KU get downhill and finish around the rim against a lack of rim protection from Texas? That seems like a good way to come out on top.
Prediction
Chalk it up to an early tip, tough environment, or just college kids having a bad collective game (honestly it was probably a bit of all three), Saturday was rough for the Jayhawks. Two of those factors are wiped away Monday; it’s an 8 p.m. local tip with the Allen Fieldhouse faithful behind them. And I would imagine that Self will do what he can to fix the sloppiness.
Two of Gradey Dick, Kevin McCullar, Dajun Harris, and Adams need to score in double figures to help out Jalen Wilson, who feels like he can get 20 points in his sleep by now. But the big key is the bench. Especially with McCullar’s fingers and Harris being banged up, KU needs strong minutes from Joseph Yesufu, Bobby Pettiford (also banged up), and Udeh.
I actually think Texas winning in Manhattan might help KU here. Instead of flopping on the road and sharing first place in the Big 12, the Longhorns now have it all to themselves and are feeling good. Meanwhile, it’s Kansas with the urgency and looking to get a bad taste out of its mouth. Kind of sounds like the storyline going into Saturday for KU, right? Kansas was coming off a big victory against KSU. Iowa State had just choked on the road. Then the Cyclones come back home and play with intensity.
Give me Kansas to do the same Monday night and keep this conference race interesting.
Kansas 78, Texas 72
Prediction record
11-10-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 71-66 KU | Actual: 68-53 ISU
