Kansas vs West Virginia Big 12 Tournament Preview: How Will KU Look in KC?
West Virginia may be the eight seed in the Big 12 Tournament, but don’t take that at face value. The Mountaineers aren’t playing like a typical eight seed in the conference. WVU has played its way into the NCAA Tournament and took care of Texas Tech with ease Wednesday.
Opponent Overview
Team: West Virginia
Record: 19-13
KenPom: 16
Line: KU -4.5 (opened KU -3)
Team Form
This is a team moving in the right direction. A near loss in Allen Fieldhouse is the only thing keeping West Virginia from a five-game winning streak. WVU ended the regular season with a road win at Iowa State – something not easy to come by – and an eight-point home win over Kansas State.
It’s crazy to think that this team started Big 12 play 0-5. Since January 18, WVU is 9-6 with wins over TCU, Auburn, Iowa State twice, and K-State. And in what is supposed to be a close 8-9 game to start the conference tournament, WVU was never really in doubt.
Players to Watch
Erik Stevenson is West Virginia’s top player and he has been on an absolute tear of late. He ended the regular season with five straight 20-point games in which he averaged 24.6 points per game. So Wednesday was considered a down game for Stevenson, and he scored 18 points and dished out six assists. But Texas Tech did hold him to 6-15 shooting from the field and 3-9 from deep.
But the resurgence has been through balance. Kedrian Johnson led the Mountaineers in scoring on Wednesday with 20 points to go with six rebounds and three steals. It was his third 20-point game in his last six games. The thing to watch with Johnson is he can be turnover-prone. And he turned it over eight times against Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse and has had four or more turnovers in five Big 12 games this year.
Meanwhile, Tre Mitchell gave Kansas tons of trouble in Lawrence (20 points, seven rebounds) and was good against Tech Wednesday. He racked up a stat line of 17 points, nine rebounds, and four steals. But if Johnson’s issue is turnovers, Mitchell’s is fouling. He only picked up one foul against Tech, which was a good sign for WVU as he had four in each of the last two games of the regular season.
Matchups to Watch
Who is going to win the turnover game? West Virginia doesn’t have its famous press, but it still turns teams over a lot. But they also give it away quite a bit. Kansas forced 21 turnovers in Lawrence but turned it over themselves 19 times. The Jayhawks have to take care of the ball while making WVU uncomfortable on the offensive end.
West Virginia was also able to shoot 55% from inside the arc in the most recent game against Kansas, with Mitchell in particular dominating down low in a game where KU went small against them. A big part of that was the Mountaineers grabbing 14 offensive rebounds, which was 41% of its misses. The Jayhawks have to keep WVU to one shot per possession. One of the reasons it handled Texas Tech so easily was WVU grabbed 19 offensive boards on Wednesday.
Prediction
As Adam Sullivan pointed out on Twitter, Kansas has won 22 of its last 25 quarterfinal games in the Big 12 Tournament. And this is over a time when the Big 12 has been as good as anyone in the country. The first 500 words of this preview just told you that West Virginia is not a typical quarterfinal opponent for a top seed, but it’s still hard to not like Kansas’ chances here.
It sounds like the coaching staff used the Texas loss to get some points across and regain focus. And I’m fascinated to see how this team plays now that we’re in the postseason where losses send you home.
Kansas has the advantage of rest but Kevin McCullar has been battling back spasms, and if he’s not 100%, that closes the gap. Judging from what we’ve seen from McCullar this year, I’d expect him to try and tough it out and play. How effective he will be is another question. But I think he’s good enough and Kansas makes enough plays to move onto the semifinals.
Kansas 79, West Virginia 72
Prediction record
16-12-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 78-76 UT | Actual: 75-59 UT
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