Kansas vs. Wisconsin Basketball Preview: Can KU Keep Hitting 3s?
It’s going to be quite the contrast of styles from game one to game two of the Battle 4 Atlantis for Kansas. After playing fast-paced, offensively minded NC State on Wednesday, the Jayhawks will turn around and play slow-tempoed, defensively led Wisconsin on Thanksgiving Day.
Opponent Overview
Team: Wisconsin
Record: 4-0
KenPom: 44
Line: KU -7
Team Form
The Badgers are undefeated and have actually played a decent schedule so far, facing now two top-60 KenPom teams in Stanford and Dayton. And so far, Wisconsin has been true to its identity. The Badgers have only scored more than 60 points once—that was their opener against South Dakota when they racked up 85—but have held every opponent under 60 points.
Wisconsin is doing this with the No. 9 defense in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom, while holding opponents to 37.4% from the field. And that’s been needed, because the Badgers have compiled a dreadful 42.3% effective field-goal percentage, which is No. 340 nationally. Surprisingly, that number is much, much worse from inside the arc than out. Wisconsin is only making 36.6% of its two-point shots, which is better than only five teams in all of D-I.
Players to Watch
Brad Davison is no longer in Madison, but there are plenty of familiar faces. Wisconsin’s four double-digit scorers are all returners from last year. Senior Tyler Wahl is leading the team with 14.7 points per game and eight rebounds. Meanwhile, sophomore Chucky Hepburn has nearly four assists per game to go with 11 points and four rebounds and juniors Steven Crowl and Jordan Davis are both averaging 10 ppg.
Wahl and Crowl both provide solid size at 6-9 and 7-0, respectively, and own a defensive rebounding rate of 20%. Wahl only played 24 minutes due to foul trouble against Dayton, while Crowl scored nine points and grabbed seven rebounds, but only hit 3-11 shots from the floor. The Badgers’ most productive offensive player on Wednesday was freshman Connor Essegian, who scored a team-high 13 points on 3-6 shooting, including 2-4 from three and 5-5 from the line.
Matchups to Watch
Wisconsin is holding opponents to a country-leading 12.5% shooting from three-point range so far through four games. Let that sink in. That means opponents are hitting one out of every eight threes they take against the Badgers. Dayton did slightly better on Wednesday, hitting 4-27 for 14.8%. Enter Gradey Dick and Kansas. The Jayhawks haven’t been lights out from behind the arc yet, but are shooting 36% and hit 10-21 (47.6%) against NC State. And of course, Dick was the spark, hitting six alone in the first half.
The other area to watch is KU’s defense and Wisconsin’s efficiency inside the arc. NC State is great in this regard, shooting 56.6% on the year, and as we’ve mentioned, the Badgers have been awful in this area. KU has also been solid defensively so far this year, despite being undersized, holding opponents to under 44% shooting from two.
Prediction
The Jayhawks were sloppy for most of Wednesday, playing what I would imagine Bill Self would say was a B- or C+ game, but came up big when it counted. Which means there’s room to improve in the second game in two days. And while a lot is made about Wisconsin’s defense, KU’s defense actually projects better than the Badgers in KenPom (KU is No. 7 in defensive efficiency to Wisconsin’s No. 9).
Dick likely won’t shoot it as well as he did on Wednesday, but I also expect Kansas to tighten up the passing and paint execution. I’ll say Kansas becomes the first team to score 60 (and then 70, barely) against the Badgers on its way to the Battle 4 Atlantis title game.
Kansas 70, Wisconsin 62
Prediction record
3-2 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 83-71 | Actual: 80-74
