NC State vs Kansas Basketball Preview: Opening the Battle 4 Atlantis
Kansas is back in the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament for the first time since 2013 when the Jayhawks finished third. In that go-around, KU beat Wake Forest and UTEP but fell to Villanova in the second game on Thanksgiving day.
This time, the likes of Tennessee, Wisconsin, Dayton (KU seems to always travel to the same mid-season tourney as the Flyers), USC, BYU, and more are making up the always-appealing field. But first, the Jayhawks will face NC State, who Kansas beat in the second round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament on the way to the Final Four.
Opponent Overview
Team: NC State
Record: 4-0
KenPom: 68
Line: KU -8.5
Team Form
Like quite a few teams still at the end of November, it’s tough to tell what is real and what is aided by the schedule with NC State. Though that could be said of this team even more than most. The Wolfpack are 4-0, but have played just one top-200 KenPom team (Campbell, No. 169) and all four games have all come at home. And two of those four wins were by 11 points or fewer. KenPom has them at No. 340 out of 363 teams in terms of strength of schedule.
This is the first test outside of Raleigh and the first against a true quality, power-five opponent. Still, this is an experienced team with seven seniors on the roster. And, opponent aside, NC State has been solid offensively. The Wolfpack are shooting 61.1% (12th nationally) inside the arc while playing at one of the fastest paces.
Players to Watch
NC State has four players scoring in double figures so far this year, led by sophomore and former top-100 recruit Terquavion Smith, who is averaging 19 points and 5.5 assists per game. The 6-4 guard is 15-21 from 2-point range so far in four games and is also a menace on defense, averaging three steals per game.
The other three double-figure scorers are all senior guards—Jarkel Joiner (17 ppg and five apg), Casey Morsell (14.8 ppg and 4.8 rpg), and Jack Clark (12 ppg and 6.8 rpg)—so it’s not just one player the Jayhawks will need to contain on the perimeter. KU will also need an answer for 6-10, 230-pound senior Dusan Mahorcic, who is leading the team in rebounds (7.5 per game), while also chipping in 9.5 points.
Matchups to Watch
The Wolfpack are going to get up plenty of threes, as they shoot from behind the arc nearly 43% of the time. And while they’re not the Golden State Warriors, they have hit 37% of those through four games. As a result, NC State has not gotten to the free-throw line much at all, as free throws only account for less than 14% of the Wolfpack’s points.
Kansas won’t have to worry about the Wolfpack being a pest on the offensive glass like Duke was. But the Wolfpack have had success ending defensive possessions in steals. NC State had 10 or more steals in its first three games and the worst mark was six, but again, the competition is not what they’re going to face in ball handlers like Dajuan Harris and Bobby Pettiford.
Prediction
Bill Self is back on the sidelines for the first game of the season and KU is coming off a test of Southern Utah that should have kept the team’s ego in check after a huge victory over Duke. The three-point line is going to be what causes the biggest variant in potential outcomes. If NCSU gets hot from three early, KU might be in a battle. It also can be tough to adjust to the weird environment that is playing in a giant ballroom.
The Jayhawks need someone other than Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick—it feels like a near certainty they’ll get their points game in, game out at this point—to step up on offense. And the combination of KJ Adams, Ernest Udeh Jr., and Zuby Ejiofor will need to protect the paint and battle Mahorcic on the glass.
I like a more tested Jayhawks team to come away with a win, especially since NC State let those four weaker opponents shoot nearly 47% from two-point range.
Kansas 82, NC State 71
Prediction record
3-1 ATS
Last game –Prediction: 89-66 | Actual: 82-76
