2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Preview: Midwest Region

The consensus seems to be that Kansas was the #1 seed that got the easiest region for advancing to the Final Four. Will they take advantage, or will they be tripped up early?

Here at Blue Wings Rising, we realize that you care about ALL the brackets in the NCAA Tournament, whether that's because you are looking for a leg up in your bracket pool, you secretly want validation that your off-the-wall pick to make the Final Four is COMPLETELY crazy, or you just love college basketball and can't help but read everything you can from every source available.

Whatever the reason, we have scoured the brackets, looked at the numbers and come up with the top things you need to account for when evaluating each region of the NCAA Tournament. We've already completed the East regional. Up next, the Midwest Regional:

Selection Sunday was littered with pronouncements that the Midwest Region was the weakest overall and that Kansas had been given a clear path to the Final Four. But upon closer inspection, while this region has teams at the top that grade out to be quite middling, it is full of interesting matchups in the earlier rounds that could cause more in the early rounds.

Best First Round Game

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7 USC against 10 Miami (FL)

This game is a complete contrast in style, where USC (42 in Kenpom) is a balanced team with both a solid offense and defense, and Miami (60 in Kenpom) is much more offensively skewed. While the Hurricanes are a high variance team, they tend to find ways to get into highly entertaining games, and they have the firepower to come back from large deficits and challenge top teams.

Upset Pick

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14 Colgate over 3 Wisconsin

This pick really comes down to two different things: the weakness of Wisconsin relative to other high seeds and recent experience of Colgate in the NCAA tournament.

Wisconsin is ranked 33 overall in Kenpom, with a top-50 offense and top-40 defense. But the real issue is that the only thing they do at an elite level is NOT turn the ball over. They don't really have any one thing to point to as what can power them to the next round, and they have two troubling losses to Nebraska and Michigan State in their last two games.

On the other side, Colgate is a fantastic 3-point shooting team, hitting 40.1% of their attempts on the season. Add in that this program had a strong showing against a much better Arkansas team last season in the same spot, and it's easy to see why this is a popular upset pick. 

Cinderella Team to Watch

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13 South Dakota State

The Jackrabbits have an absolutely fantastic matchup in the 4/13 game, as they face a Providence team that is highly overseeded. South Dakota State is the best 3-point shooting team in the nation, and have the 12th overall offense, matching up against the 80th rated defense in Providence.

If both Baylor Scheierman and Zeke Mayo are both on, it's going to be hard for Providence to keep up with the barrage of 3-point baskets. After that, South Dakota State will have potential matchups against fellow offensive powerhouses in Iowa and then Kansas, so there is some possibility for high-scoring, entertaining games where upsets are possible.

Best potential Second Round/Sweet 16 matchup

© Jenna Watson/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

The best potential matchups come from the 4/5/12/13 pod. An offensive showcase between Iowa and South Dakota State would be as entertaining as it gets, but even a Richmond-Providence game could be entertaining.

Continuing with the Iowa theme, the potential matchup between the Hawkeyes and Jayhawks is tantalizing. Two of the absolute best offenses in the nation, playing high level basketball from two of the best conferences in the nation? Sign me up!

Players To Watch

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This region is headlined by a lot of fantastic players, including National Player of the Year candidate Ochai Agbaji from Kansas, likely top pick in the NBA Draft Jabari Smith from Auburn, and fellow First Team All-American Keegan Murray of Iowa. Of course you need to watch these top-tier players light up the scoreboard.

But there is a lot of talent distributed throughout the entire region. Baylor Scheierman of South Dakota State is one the best 3-point shooters in the nation. Charlie Moore of Miami, while not the best scorer on his team, has put the Hurricanes on his back and carried them to multiple big wins. Finally, Jacob Gilyard of Richmond is the NCAA career steals leader, a record that he claimed earlier this season.

Dark horse pick

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Look, I realize that this pick requires San Diego State to get past the Jayhawks first, but the key to getting past the top seed is to be elite on one side of the ball. The Aztecs have the #2 defense in Kenpom, powered by their stout interior defense and ability to turn over their opponents. While the offense has a lot of ground to make up, they have the ability to limit possessions with their slow pace and keep games close late, which is exactly what you need to pull an upset in the NCAA Tournament. 

Regional Final Prediction

It's hard to pick against the Jayhawks in any individual matchup in this region, given how strong the offense is and how much improvement the defense has shown over the course of the season. While there are potentially difficult aspects to each matchup past the first round, it's hard to imagine that anyone on the top side of the bracket can be a serious challenge. Similarly, on the bottom side of the bracket, the only thing that could keep Auburn out of the regional final is if Jabari Smith is either unavailable or hampered due to injury.

That leads me to the boring chalk pick of the Jayhawks over the Tigers. Kansas has shown the ability to dictate the pacing of the game offensively, even against the best defenses in the nation. I expect to see them take that ability into the Final Four this year.

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