Friars vs Jayhawks: Game Predictions

The Kansas Jayhawks tip off in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament tonight. The Blue Wings Rising crew tells you what you should expect to happen.

The Kansas Jayhawks have advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2018, thanks to a Round of 32 victory over Creighton that was more difficult than expected. Up next are the Providence Friars, a team that has consistently won close games at a higher than expected clip.

Will Kansas be able to reverse that trend and pull out a close victory? Can they avoid the trend entirely by jumping out to a big lead and never letting the Friars back into the game? Or will they be the third 1 seed to lose in the Sweet 16 of this tournament?

Our crew gets together to tell you what we think you can expect to see today.

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Brendan Dzwierzynski: Kansas is favored by 7.5 points over Providence, and that feels right on the money. I do think the Friars stay in this one for the duration, they may be lucky but they’re also good, but the way the Jayhawks are playing and specifically how they’re defending has me encouraged. I’m excited to see if David McCormack can reemerge and put together a strong game, especially against a legit threat on the other side in Nate Watson. I’ll take Bill Self to get his ninth Sweet 16 win with the program. 

Kansas 78, Providence 70.

Lucas Murphy: The tournament has begun its purge of top seeds as we witnessed Arizona and Gonzaga lose last night. The Kansas Jayhawks are the last remaining one seed in the tournament. The path to the championship continues as they square off against Providence. These two teams match up well on paper. The Jayhawks will need another tremendous performance from Remy Martin. I would also like to see better execution from the free-throw line. As we get later and later into the tournament, free throws will be a vital part of advancing to the next round. I believe the Jayhawks will prevail and advance.

Kansas 76, Providence 72

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Kyle Davis: Bill Self is 8-2 in Sweet 16 games, so when you give him five days to prepare like he has for Providence, Kansas is going to come ready with a strong game plan. The other aspect that should give KU fans confidence is Ochai Agbaji has not been his normal dominant self and yet the Jayhawks have found ways to win. I think Ochai and Christian Braun have big games as Providence tries to slow Remy Martin down.

Kansas 77, Providence 71

Derek Noll: Quickie prediction here. Ochai and Braun finally go off in this tournament and KU wins.

Kansas 80, Providence 67.

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Andy Mitts: I talked about this with Matt St. Jean in the prediction episode of the podcast, but Providence has been super successful this season by keeping games close. Do everything possible to stay within striking distance, and you set yourself up for capitalizing on small mistakes at the end of the game. And Ed Cooley teams are masters at avoiding late game execution errors.

Given that, the key to this game for the Jayhawks is to get started quickly. They need to get multiple weapons firing early and often, because building a quick lead has been the recipe to beating Providence this season. The key to making that happen is a game plan fairly similar to what the Friars like to do: Feed McCormack consistently. Once he starts to have some success inside, use the resulting double-teams to open up shots for Agbaji and Braun on the perimeter.

But even if the Jayhawks can't manage to do that, I still trust the combination of Braun and Agbaji to get going, and Jalen Wilson and Remy Martin give Kansas too many weapons for Providence to reliably shut down over the course of the whole game. 

Kansas 82, Providence 71

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