93 Days Until Kansas Football: Reasons for Pessimism
If you have been a Kansas fan for any length of time, you are probably used to the annual tradition of trying to figure out just how bad things can go each season.
So far on the countdown, it seems like everything has been pointing to a marked improvement for Lance Leipold and the Jayhawks, and for good reason. The returning production is a big deal. And we'll have more reasons to be optimistic tomorrow.
But no matter how obvious it seems that things just have to get better, there is always a chance that things could get worse. If they do, here are some potential explanations:
Culture Shock
Everything I've seen so far, from player interviews to coach evaluations during spring practices, points to a smooth process going from the Les Miles era to the Lance Leipold system. But bumps in the road are the norm for large system changes, and there are a LOT of differences between the style that was played by a Les Miles team and the current ones here.
It is true that a hallmark of the teams that Lance Leipold put together at Wisconsin-Whitewater and Buffalo was that they adapted to the players they had on their roster, that doesn't mean it was an immediate thing. In his second season at Buffalo, Leipold's team regressed from a 5-7 record in the first season to a 2-10 record in the second season. Sure they bounced back to go 6-6 the next season, but that second year was extremely painful. It was bad enough that fans had to be reminded that they were stuck with Leipold no matter what.
Given how abbreviated the offseason was for Leipold in his first year at Kansas, it's reasonable to assume that most of the transition that would have taken place in a normal year one wasn't able to occur, or at least wasn't as thorough as you might think. If there is any residual effects of trying to truly implement his system, this season could be a rough one.
Strength of the Schedule
Some people might see that and laugh, especially if they are not fans of a team in the conference. But the Jayhawks had one of the toughest schedules in all of college football last season, and they are essentially doubling down.
Coastal Carolina is no longer on the schedule, but instead the Jayhawks get to travel to future conference opponent Houston (unless some sort of last-minute scheduling miracle happens). The Cougars will be at least as difficult as the Chanticleers were last season.
Duke and Tennessee Tech are both winnable games, at least when you look at relative rankings in the FPI. But Kansas is rated 97th in the FPI, while Duke is only down at 102nd. That's not a huge difference, so even that one could be seen as a potential coin flip.
Once you get past those two games, there really isn't anything that you might see as winnable if you put any stock in the FPI at all. West Virginia is the next closest opponent, ranked as the 52nd best team by FPI. And it only gets worse from there.
Defensive Issues
Let's just be blunt: Kansas was one of the worst defensive teams in all of college football last season. They ranked 126th (out of 130) in total defense at 486.8 yards per game (YPG), including 81st in passing defense at 236.8 ypg and 129th in rushing defense at 249.9 ypg. They were also 129th in scoring defense, allowing 42.2 points per game. That's objectively horrible.
While Kansas has picked up a lot of big transfers, especially on the defensive side of the ball, it's still not clear exactly how well those players are going to be able to play right out of the gate. While there were a lot of transfers at key positions, the loss of Kyron Johnson could potentially be huge.
