Is there a "right" non-conference scheduling philosophy?: 50 Days Until Kansas Football

In yesterday's Big 12 Media Day appearance, Kansas Jayhawks head coach Lance Leipold fielded a lot of questions about the upcoming season. The team brings back Preseason All-Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Jalon Daniels, a much improved Devin Neal and a healthy Daniel Hishaw. The offensive and defensive lines added some key pieces, and overall the expectations are up for the Jayhawks.

Leipold talked about the need to "embrace those [expectations], but keeping them in balance". While there are a lot of positive things being written currently about the team, there are more expectations for this team. But earlier on the ESPNU set, he mentioned the possibility that this team could get better without that showing up in results. He specifically pointed to the early non-conference matchup against Illinois and then playing 2 of the new schools in the first three conference games.

But with many fans expecting another move forward, Twitter was talking about just how good or bad that non-conference schedule may be for this team. The first one I saw was from Mike Vernon:

KU Football take: Whoever did the non-conference scheduling for this year REALLY messed up
— Mike Vernon (@M_Vernon) July 12, 2023

This conversation begs a few questions:

Is the non-conference bad for the Jayhawks?

I've seen a lot of people talk about how having a home game against a potentially ranked Illinois team is a mistake, especially when combined with a road game out west against Nevada. The argument seems to be that the Jayhawks are looking to build on the momentum of last season, and that an early loss in a tough game is bad for building that early momentum.

The flaw in this line of thinking is that the only way to build on that momentum is with a similar hot start to the one the team had last year. But I'm not buying that. This team is one that has proven their mettle and resiliency, and there isn't any better way to see if they have improved from the bowl game against Arkansas then by playing another team that may give them problems with their physicality on the lines. And I'm struggling to see any situation where the game against Nevada is a mistake.

Is there a "right" philosophy?

The Jayhawks are used to seeing a great coach take full advantage of non-conference play to prepare his team for the meat grinder that is the conference schedule. Head Coach Bill Self is widely regarded as one of the best at constructing a schedule to get the most out of his team.

But the basketball season includes 30 or more games to work with, which allows for a coach to find multiple challenges over the course of a month and a half of non-conference play to best prepare his team. And the basketball schedule has multiple opportunities to schedule games in the offseason before the year, when a coach can evaluate his roster and adjust the schedule somewhat to tailor it to his team.

In football, that isn't possible. You would ideally like easier opponents when your team is still trying to rebuild. Then, as the program and team improves, you can step up the challenges with tougher and higher-profile games. If you have a young team, you would want to ease them into the games. More experienced teams can handle bigger challenges up front. But with the lead time required for the scheduling of most games, it is hard to actually time those correctly.

So did someone actually mess up?

I would have to say no. When the Illinois game was originally scheduled, their program was in a situation similar to the Jayhawks. They had struggled under their recent coach, had brought in a new guy that they expected to help get them to turn things around, and were hoping that the improvement could be helped with a semi-challenging game against a struggling Power Five school.

Neither school could have looked at the recent performances at the time and thought that the other was going to make huge leaps in such a short amount of time. Remember that this game was scheduled all the way back in 2014. If anything, this game being on the schedule was a stroke of luck. I'll let you decide if it is good luck or bad luck.

The Nevada game is on the opposite side of the spectrum. It is a replacement game for the non-conference matchup against Houston that was scheduled in Memorial Stadium this season. When the Big 12 added the Cougars, the Jayhawks were forced to find a last-minute opponent. Unlike during the COVID season, most everyone had their schedules filled out already, so it was difficult to really tailor a game to what you think your team might need.

Both of these games are perfect examples of why the scheduling process should change to avoid scheduling games a decade in advance. Teams are left to guess about what the "marquee" matchups need to accomplish. And if something does fall through unexpectedly, what might be a good matchup gets replaced with whatever happens to be available after everyone else has been booked for the last eight or nine years.

In all, no matter how much the coaching staff may not like the way the schedule sets up this season (and I've heard from several people that there are some grumblings about the slate), this is a by-product of the current state of scheduling games in college football. At least we have a good opportunity to truly see just how far this program has come in just two years under Lance Leipold.