Kansas at Houston Preview: Can the Cougars Slow Down KU's Offense?
Kansas brings a 2-0 record and the highest-scoring offense in the country to Houston to face the Cougars in a non-conference matchup ahead of Houston joining the Big 12.
This game looks different than even a few months ago during our summer preview, and the changes from perception to reality over two weeks (more on that soon) makes this a more competitive game on paper than we may have initially thought.
Opponent Overview
Team: Houston
Record: 1-1
Line: HOU -9
Team Form
Kansas was not the team expected to come into this matchup 2-0, but the Jayhawks have shone bright through two weeks, while Houston has struggled compared to preseason standards. Houston started the season ranked No. 24 and had all it could handle with UTSA, winning 37-35 in triple overtime. Then at No. 25 last week, the Cougars lost to Texas Tech 33-30 in double overtime.
In both games, Houston has had to claw its way back. It trailed UTSA 14-7 at halftime and 21-7 after three quarters. Against Tech, Houston was down 17-3 at halftime. To the Cougars’ credit, they outscored those two opponents 27-6 in the fourth quarter, so the game is never truly over with them.
Players to Watch
Houston quarterback Clayton Tune is familiar with Kansas. He was committed to the Jayhawks in February of 2017 before decommitting in October and committing to Houston a few months later. Tune is now in his fifth year and has similar stats (472 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) to Jalon Daniels except he’s not as efficient. Tune is just completing 59% of his passes.
And he has a clear No. 1 target in Nathaniel Dell. Dell has caught 12 passes for 170 yards and two touchdowns, while no other Houston receiver has caught more than five or gained more than 71 yards receiving. Meanwhile, Tune is the second-leading rusher on the team behind Brandon Campbell’s 129 yards on 31 carries.
If Kansas is going to continue its streak of not allowing a sack, the offensive line will have to know where Derek Parish is at all times. Parish has already recorded five sacks and seven tackles for loss in two games, along with 14 tackles.
Matchup to Watch
Watch for Daniels against the Houston secondary. The Cougars have given up 337 and 350 yards passing respectively in the first two games, which should make Daniels’ eyes widen. However, Houston has recorded four interceptions, including forcing Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith into three of them.
On the other side of the ball, the question is if Kansas’ defense can continue to make life challenging for the Cougars’ offense. Houston is only averaging 4.8 yards per play through two games and 348 yards of total offense. For comparison, West Virginia is averaging 6.1 yards per play and 457 yards per game.
Prediction
It feels like the line is high (it hit 10 before coming back to Houston by nine) based on preseason expectations (Houston being ranked and KU with a win total over/under of just 2.5). Houston may still be a top-25 caliber team, but we haven’t seen it yet from the Cougars. Along with the passing defense struggles, Houston has also committed double-digit penalties in each game.
While it feels like I should be picking this to go to overtime considering how Houston’s first two games went, I’m going to say this is decided in regulation. And while I wouldn’t have expected doing this in August, I’m taking Kansas’ high-powered offense to earn another road win. Although I do think it will be close.
Kansas 38, Houston 34
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