Way-Too-Early Predictions: Games 5-8 - 85 Days Until Kansas Football

With almost 3 months to go before the start of the season, we continue our early predictions with the middle four games of the season.

© NATHAN J FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

On Monday, the countdown looked at some super early predictions for the beginning of the season for the Kansas Jayhawks. And while I've gotten some pushback that this is unrealistically rosy, yesterday's entry talked about the increased expectations for this team in Vegas. To hit that mark, the early slate is going to be very important.

A reminder that there are still almost three months to go before the season opener against the Missouri State Bears, which means that there is plenty of time for things to change. But that also means it's the perfect time to make predictions that are likely missing critical information or will be wildly inaccurate long before we actually get to the game.

Contents

1. at Texas (5)
2. vs UCF (26)
3. at Oklahoma State (38)
4. vs Oklahoma (11)

But of course that's the majority of the fun.

For these predictions, we will be looking at ESPN's FPI Rankings. For reference, the Kansas Jayhawks rank 68th coming into this season, down from their season ending ranking of 58th in 2022.

We've broken the schedule into three parts, and this is the middle four games. On Friday, we'll finish the entire schedule and provide some overall thoughts on the season for Kansas.

at Texas (5)

By any measure, this should be a loss for the Jayhawks. Texas has a much deeper talent pool on the roster, the defense was one of the few that was able to stop the Jayhawks for the entire game last year, and Texas is looking to be much improved. Plus, there is a pretty clear argument to be made that the Jayhawks surprised the Longhorns in Austin two years ago, something that isn't likely to happen again.

But the Kansas offense is returning almost every important piece from a unit that was one of the best in the country last year. The dip at the end of the year happened when Jalon Daniels first returned from injury against the Longhorns, plus a rainy night in Manhattan.

But the Kansas defense didn't have an answer for anyone in the run game last year. Bijan Robinson wasn't the only running back to have success, and it's hard to see at this point how Kansas completely overcomes that issue. It should be closer than a lot of people seem to think it will be, but Kansas will drop their first game of the season here.

Prediction: Texas 48, Kansas 38

vs UCF (26)

My initial thought here was "Daniels is just too much for UCF here, especially at home, right" and thought maybe I was leaning too much into the hype. But I'm not the only one worried about how UCF will stand up to Daniels. The offensive line for the Jayhawks should be able to withstand whatever pressure the UCF defensive line should manage, and the defensive issues that UCF had last year won't be magically fixed overnight. 

The flip side of this is the UCF offense. They have an excellent rushing attack, and John Rhys Plumlee, their QB who transferred in last season from Ole Miss, has shown the ability to take advantage of defenses with the passing game. Will Kansas be able to get the pressure they need to set up difficult throws? Will the secondary be disciplined enough prevent big plays? I think so, but it's not going to be easy at all.

Prediction: Kansas 35, UCF 27

at Oklahoma State (38)

This is another one that seems strange to consider as a likely win for Kansas, because Oklahoma State for a long time has been a team that the Jayhawks just can't stick close to. And last year's win featured an impossible injury situation for the Cowboys.

But while I see at least moderate improvement across the board for Mike Gundy's squad, I'm not sure where the team gets what they need to stop Devin Neal, who did basically whatever he wanted last year. And the return of Jalon Daniels instead of Jason Bean should only supercharge that offense even more.

 Offensively, the addition of Alan Bowman to the quarterback room doesn't do much for me, and I still think it will be near the bottom of the conference this season. And the running game has plenty of questions. This game being on the road will likely keep it closer, but the 38th ranking in FPI is HIGHLY questionable to me.

Prediction: Kansas 41, Oklahoma State 28

vs Oklahoma (11)

It's impossible to consider year 1 under Brent Venables as anything other than a failure. Sure, you can point to a depleted roster thanks to the exodus of players to USC with Lincoln Riley. But this team had a significant talent advantage on most teams in the Big 12, and routinely found ways to shoot themselves in the foot.

Kansas got dominated in Norman, but they were without Jalon Daniels and lost Cobee Bryant to an injury late in the first half. And they were still able to make it a game in the second half. In Lawrence the year before, they nearly pulled off the upset with a MASSIVE talent disadvantage.

This game is going to come down to which team is better able to fix their defensive issues at this point in the season. Oklahoma SHOULD be able to do that better, but we'll see if that's actually case. Or if Bedlam the next week is a distraction 

Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Kansas 35

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