What is the ceiling for Kansas Football?

We have just over a month before the first college football action, when Navy and Notre Dame face off in Dublin, Ireland. And that means that publications around the country have started putting out their predictions for the season. And there have been a huge variety already, from the extremely lazy PFF Elo Power Rankings to media polls as conferences have their season opening press events.

So it's about time to look at just how good things might be for the Kansas Jayhawks this season. Note that this is not our best-case scenario article where we run through the schedule. That will happen much closer to opening day, after we have seen and heard from the team at camp.

As I was putting together my answer for the latest roundtable article, I couldn't help but note one of the more surprising predictions concerning the Big 12:

"If Jalon Daniels can play like a Heisman contender, it’s not crazy to think this team could compete for the Big 12 championship." #kufball https://t.co/rdraeLcMbN
— All Jayhawks (@all_jayhawks) July 17, 2023

It's not that the article is wrong, but more that I'm surprised that 1. Kansas was mentioned as the dark horse candidate over others like Texas Tech and 2. The defense wasn't mentioned as the reason this team could surprise.

So let's really dive in and see just how high the potential is for this Kansas team this season. There are three main reasons to think that this team could actually compete for a Big 12 title this season:

Defensive Improvement

It's absolutely not a secret that the Kansas defensive effort last season left something to be desired. The running defense struggled, especially on the road. But we've mentioned before just how badly the overall defensive talent lacked for this team before Lance Leipold and staff took over. What isn't really acknowledged is just how much better the defense got from Year 1 into Year 2.

The Most Improved Defenses '22 vs. '21

Some really tremendous jobs here including the long running rebuild of the Louisville defense finally paying off a bit. pic.twitter.com/2j5J66sNRx
— Rob Bowron (@beta_rank_fb) July 17, 2023

The four Big 12 teams at the top of the list finished as the four worst teams in the conference in 2021. Each of them took a significant leap forward, with TCU going undefeated in the regular season, Texas and Texas Tech coming in third and fourth, respectively, and the Jayhawks going from just two wins to a bowl berth.

I think Phillip Slavin over at the Ten12 Network summed it up best:

I believe enough in Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas’ offenses this year, that if they can make another sizable jump on defense like they did last season, then you’ve got your title contenders right there. https://t.co/jhgMIkrn7y
— Ten12 Podcast Network (@Ten12Network) July 17, 2023

Quality Coaching

I've claimed for a while that Andy Kotelnicki is one of the best, if not THE best, offensive coordinator in the game right now. His ability to scheme around strong defenders has rightfully led to some recognition around the college football world. But it's a bit crazy to see just how much better this team was last year.

Most Improved Offenses in CFB '22 vs. '21

Some interesting under the radar improvements by some teams outside the limelight. We'll see who keeps it up this season. pic.twitter.com/XApPu3qeFw
— Rob Bowron (@beta_rank_fb) July 17, 2023

Obviously a lot of that has to do with the guy playing quarterback, but with Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean essentially splitting time on the season, it's not fair to give either of them full credit.

Instead, there are a couple stats that I can point to that shows just how big of an impact the coaching staff and their system has had.

One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact):

Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability pic.twitter.com/9aVUgQVOZL
— parker fleming (@statsowar) December 7, 2022

The Jayhawks are almost as far to the right as possible, but don't move up very high off the axis. This means that on average, the positive contributions to the run game came from the scheme as opposed to the players. While that doesn't really mesh with the idea that Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw are premier running backs, I think that can be explained away by the individual players doing enough to prevent contact that it looks better for the line. But either way, this says that the coaching staff is putting players in really good situations.

Additionally, the coaching shows up in the performances from the line:

Percent of runs with a blown blocking assignment*

2023 P5 teams in 2022

* as charted by SIS pic.twitter.com/bA5HWb860M
— parker fleming (@statsowar) July 16, 2023

This stat points to the discipline of the system as much as it does to the talent of the players on the offensive line. And with another year of coaching, it's not unreasonable to think that the Jayhawks can improve the offense even further.

Jalon Daniels

Pro Football Focus is absolutely correct in saying that Jalon Daniels is the one player who can have the single greatest impact on the outcome for the team this year.

His list of accolades are impressive, as he has been on the first or second team of multiple major publication's preseason lists, including being named the Preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.

But as the end of the Liberty Bowl showed, when he is on, the rest of the team follows along. And if he is going to be a legitimate Heisman candidate, that level of play will do wonders to raise the ceiling for this team.

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