Can Kentucky Replicate 2022 North Carolina's Regular-Season Ending Winning Streak, March Madness Run?
It's do-or-die time for Kentucky basketball.
Three weeks remain in the 2022-23 regular season, and the Wildcats' season feels as though it's on life support. Saturday afternoon's 75-68 loss to Georgia was a stern reminder that coach John Calipari's team is still far from where it was expected to be come Valentine's Day.
UK is in grave danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years — which would make it a fourth year in a row that the storied program from the Bluegrass wouldn't have a win in March Madness, COVID-cancelation season included.
Next up for the Cats is another road test, this time against Mississippi State in Starkville. The Bulldogs have won five straight and are now projected to be on the right side of the bubble, while Kentucky sits on the other end.
Another loss would be back-breaking for UK. Despite being on the brink, Calipari is still taking a positive approach in the lead-up to the game, calling back to a similar situation that another blue-blood was in a year ago.
"Last year North Carolina was in the same position we're in with five games to go, we've got six," Calipari said during his call-in radio show on Monday night. "Everybody said they're an NIT team."
It was year one post-Roy Williams in Chapel Hill, and things weren't going great for new coach Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels. UNC was riding a similar rocky wave last season that Kentucky's currently on.
With six games left in the regular season, North Carolina was 18-7, swiveling back and forth from the bubble. A poor finish could've meant not punching a ticket to the Big Dance.
That came to reality in its next game, as UNC lost at the Dean E. Smith Center for the first time that season to a horrid Pittsburgh team, 76-67. The Panthers jumped out to a 17-point lead at halftime and canned 10 3-pointers en route to a stunning win. That game resulted in most people writing the Tar Heels off.
Of course, the ship then did a complete 180, as UNC won its last five games to close the regular season — including road wins at Virginia Tech and ninth-ranked Duke — giving it life moving into the ACC Tournament, where it would lose to Va Tech in the semifinals.
The selection committee handed Davis and his team an eight-seed. Queue the improbable run to the national championship game, where Kansas would edge out a 72-69 win, spoiling a blue-blood cinderella story of sorts.
Following that heinous loss to Pitt at home, here was UNC's NCAA Tournament résumé:
- Overall record: 18-8 (10-5 ACC)
- Quadrant 1 record: 2-7
- Quadrant 2 record: 3-0
- Quadrant 3 record: 8-0
- Quadrant 4 record: 5-1
- Strength of Schedule: 36th
Now, here's Kentucky's with six games to go this season:
- Overall record: 16-9 (7-5 SEC)
- Quadrant 1 record: 1-7
- Quadrant 2 record: 6-1
- Quadrant 3 record: 3-0
- Quadrant 4 record: 6-1
- Strength of Schedule: 36th
Very similar. UNC's Pittsburgh loss and UK's blunder at home against South Carolina go hand-in-hand. The poor record against top-notch opponents is the same, but the results against Q2 and Q3 foes is much better.
"North Carolina went on a little mini-run at the end, with five games to go they were done," Calipari said. "We don't have to win every game out, but we got to win a bunch of these."
Of course, this is easier said than done. Emulating North Carolina's year-end streak will be a tad harder for the Wildcats this season, though.
UNC's final five games featured just two Q1 opportunities, both of which it cashed in on: the aforementioned road wins over Duke and Virginia Tech. Those other three games — versus Louisville, at NC State and versus Syracuse — were all just Q3 wins.
Compare that to Kentucky's final six games, which currently includes four Q1 matchups — at Mississippi State, versus Tennessee, at Florida and at Arkansas, a Q2 opportunity at home against Auburn and a Q3 in Lexington against Vanderbilt.
Point blank, running the table won't be easy. Far from it, especially if guards Sahvir Wheeler and CJ Fredrick continue to miss time. KenPom currently projects the Cats to win just two of their final six — the home tilts against Auburn and Vandy.
"We don't know what we are right now. But I do know we have the kind of schedule left, that we can make that we can make this season whatever we want to make it," Calipari said.
And he's correct. Here's how the Tar Heels' résumé looked after it bowed out of the ACC Tournament:
- Overall record: 24-9
- Q1: 4-8
- Q2: 4-0
- Q3: 11-0
- Q4: 5-1
- SOS: 38th
Every season is different, but that was good enough to keep North Carolina out of the First Four by a solid margin. If Kentucky can win three of its four current-Q1 games, then it will maintain that same 4-8 record that UNC achieved before moving into the SEC Tournament in Nashville.
Losing to Vanderbilt is not an option, while dropping the Auburn showdown would also sting. There's a very real chance that making March Madness could come down to a win over an Alabama or Tennessee in the conference tourney — if those games are actually taken into consideration by the selection committee.
Year-end turnarounds don't just happen, however. What UNC did last season was remarkable, thrusting it into the NCAA Tournament with momentum, resulting in fantastic run to the title game.
Kentucky doesn't exactly appear capable of putting together a powerful win streak like that, but crazier things have happened. One may point towards its six-game SEC winning streak that was snapped just a week ago, but just one of those victories fell into the Q1 category.
Taking down the Bulldogs on Wednesday night in Starkville is the only place to start if Calipari wants to turn it into reality.
More on what lies ahead for Kentucky HERE.
More on the loss to Georgia HERE.
Game notes from the defeat can be found HERE.
WATCH: John Calipari speaks after loss to UGA.
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