Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers for their Tuesday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Jan 18, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard J'Vonne Hadley (1) drives to the basket against Virginia Cavaliers forward Anthony Robinson (21) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Virginia 81-67. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (12-4, 2-2 ACC) is set to face Virginia (14-2, 3-1 ACC) on Tuesday, Jan. 13 at 7:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Virginia	Louisville
AP/USAT	23rd/23rd	20th/18th
SOS	72nd	45th
SOR	21st	32nd
NET	16th	17th
RPI	25th	38th
BPI	25th	8th
KenPom	15th	16th
Torvik	13th	17th
EvanMiya	15th	19th

Team Leaders

	Virginia	Louisville
Points	Thijs De Ridder (16.4)	Ryan Conwell (19.9)
Rebounds	Johann Grunloh (6.8)	Sananda Fru (7.1)
Assists	Dallin Hall (4.1)	Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)
Steals	Chance Mallory (2.1)	Ryan Conwell (1.3)
Blocks	Ugonna Onyenso (2.6)	Sananda Fru (1.3)

Scoring

	Virginia	Louisville
Points Per Game	85.1	88.3
Field Goal %	48.1	46.8
FGM/FGA Per Game	29.7/61.7	29.3/62.7
Three Point %	36.7	34.8
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	10.3/27.9	11.8/33.9
Free Throw %	68.8	77.3
FTM/FTA Per Game	15.4/22.4	17.9/23.1

Rebounding

	Virginia	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	41.9	42.0
Off. Reb. Per Game	14.1	12.6
Def. Reb. Per Game	27.8	29.4
Rebound Margin	9.1	8.4

Defense

	Virginia	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	66.8	69.6
Opp. FG%	38.0	39.3
Opp. 3PT%	28.8	31.5
Steals Per Game	6.9	7.3
Blocks Per Game	6.5	3.6
Turnovers Forced Per Game	11.6	12.8

Ball Handling

	Virginia	Louisville
Assists Per Game	17.6	17.8
Turnovers Per Game	10.7	11.8
Turnover Margin	0.9	1.0
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.64	1.52

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have an 78.7 percent chance to win against the Cavaliers. Louisville has a BPI rating of 20.2 (8th overall), whereas Virginia has a BPI rating of 15.5 (25th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 61 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers, with a projected final score of 80-77 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +24.27 (16th overall), whereas Virginia has an adjusted efficiency margin of +24.60 (15th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 61 percent chance to take down the Hoos, with a projected final score of 79-76 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9326 (17th overall), whereas Virginia has a "Barthag" of .9413 (13th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 80, Virginia 79.

(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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