Louisville Report

Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Baylor

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Bears for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:
Matthew McGavic|
Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) pressures NC State Wolfpack guard Quadir Copeland (11) during ACC basketball February 9, 2026 in Louisville, Kentucky.
Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) pressures NC State Wolfpack guard Quadir Copeland (11) during ACC basketball February 9, 2026 in Louisville, Kentucky. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In this story:

Louisville CardinalsBaylor Bears

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (18-6, 8-4 ACC) is set to face Baylor (13-11, 3-9 Big 12) on Saturday, Feb. 14 at 4:00 p.m. EST from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Bears:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

Baylor

Louisville

AP/USAT

NR/NR

24th/23rd

SOS

37th

36th

SOR

62nd

27th

NET

46th

14th

RPI

71st

23rd

BPI

42nd

11th

KenPom

44th

15th

Torvik

48th

14th

EvanMiya

44th

16th

Team Leaders

Baylor

Louisville

Points

Cameron Carr (19.8)

Ryan Conwell (18.9)

Rebounds

Caden Powell (6.7)

Sananda Fru (6.5)

Assists

Obi Agbim (3.3)

Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)

Steals

Tounde Yessoufou (2.0)

Ryan Conwell (1.3)

Blocks

Cameron Carr (1.4)

Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

Baylor

Louisville

Points Per Game

83.9

87.1

Field Goal %

48.3

47.0

FGM/FGA Per Game

29.5/61.1

29.2/62.1

Three Point %

36.4

35.5

3PTM/3PTA Per Game

8.7/23.9

11.8/33.3

Free Throw %

72.4

76.7

FTM/FTA Per Game

16.1/22.2

16.9/22.0

Rebounding

Baylor

Louisville

Rebounds Per Game

38.2

40.3

Off. Reb. Per Game

12.7

12.0

Def. Reb. Per Game

25.5

28.3

Rebound Margin

5.3

6.4

Defense

Baylor

Louisville

Opp. Points Per Game

75.9

70.9

Opp. FG%

43.9

40.4

Opp. 3PT%

33.7

33.2

Steals Per Game

6.5

7.0

Blocks Per Game

4.6

3.3

Turnovers Forced Per Game

11.1

12.3

Ball Handling

Baylor

Louisville

Assists Per Game

16.0

17.9

Turnovers Per Game

11.8

11.5

Turnover Margin

-0.7

0.8

Assist/Turnover Ratio

1.36

1.56

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 78.1 percent chance to win against the Bears. Louisville has a BPI rating of 20.3 (11th overall), whereas Baylor has a BPI rating of 12.7 (42nd overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 69 percent chance to take down the Bears, with a projected final score of 85-80 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +27.10 (15th overall), whereas Baylor has an adjusted efficiency margin of +17.03 (44th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 79 percent chance to take down the Bears, with a projected final score of 87-78 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9491 (14th overall), whereas Baylor has a "Barthag" of .8339 (48th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 89, Baylor 80.

More Cardinals Stories

(Photo of Ryan Conwell: Matt Stone - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

You can follow Louisville Cardinals On SI for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram:

Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter/X - @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram - @louisvilleonsi

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter/X and @mattmcgavic.bsky.social on Bluesky

Published
Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic

Home/Basketball