Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. SMU

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs for their Tuesday rematch, and who the statistical models favor:

Jan 26, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Louisville Cardinals center Sananda Fru (13) lays the ball up in front of Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba II (21) during the first half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (19-6, 8-4 ACC) is set to face SMU (17-8, 6-6 ACC) on Tuesday, Feb. 17 at 7:00 p.m. EST from Moody Coliseum in Dallas, Texas. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	SMU	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	24th/23rd
SOS	38th	35th
SOR	39th	24th
NET	36th	12th
RPI	32	23rd
BPI	39th	10th
KenPom	38th	14th
Torvik	37th	14th
EvanMiya	38th	15th

Team Leaders

	SMU	Louisville
Points	Boopie Miller (18.9)	Ryan Conwell (18.7)
Rebounds	Samet Yigitoglu (8.0)	Sananda Fru (6.5)
Assists	Boopie Miller (6.8)	Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)
Steals	B.J. Edwards (2.4)	Conwell, Brown (1.2)
Blocks	Samet Yigitoglu (1.4)	Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

	SMU	Louisville
Points Per Game	86.2	86.9
Field Goal %	49.5	47.3
FGM/FGA Per Game	31.2/63.0	29.2/61.6
Three Point %	37.8	35.7
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	8.3/21.9	11.6/32.6
Free Throw %	76.2	77.2
FTM/FTA Per Game	15.6/20.5	16.9/21.9

Rebounding

	SMU	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	38.1	39.9
Off. Reb. Per Game	12.2	11.8
Def. Reb. Per Game	25.9	28.1
Rebound Margin	3.9	6.2

Defense

	SMU	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	77.6	70.9
Opp. FG%	43.4	40.3
Opp. 3PT%	32.8	32.3
Steals Per Game	7.4	7.0
Blocks Per Game	3.8	3.4
Turnovers Forced Per Game	12.6	12.2

Ball Handling

	SMU	Louisville
Assists Per Game	17.6	17.9
Turnovers Per Game	11.5	11.6
Turnover Margin	1.1	0.6
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.54	1.55

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 66.4 percent chance to win against the Mustangs. Louisville has a BPI rating of 20.5 (10th overall), whereas SMU has a BPI rating of 13.3 (39th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 58 percent chance to take down the Mustangs, with a projected final score of 84-82 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +27.33 (14th overall), whereas SMU has an adjusted efficiency margin of +19.61 (38th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 55 percent chance to take down the Mustangs, with a projected final score of 84-83 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9473 (14th overall), whereas SMU has a "Barthag" of .8902 (37th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 85, SMU 78.

(Photo of Sananda Fru: Rob Kinnan - Imagn Images)

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