Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Miami

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Hurricanes for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals forward Khani Rooths (9) celebrates after scoring and drawing the foul against Kansas during an exhibition game before UofL basketball's 2025-26 season at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky Friday, October 24, 2025. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (21-9, 10-7 ACC) is set to face Miami (23-6, 12-4 ACC) on Saturday, Mar. 7 at 2:00 p.m. EST from the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, Florida. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Hurricanes:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Miami	Louisville
AP/USAT	22nd/23rd	RV/RV
SOS	86th	45th
SOR	25th	28th
NET	31st	15th
WAB	28th	23rd
RPI	46th	28th
BPI	40th	11th
KenPom	29th	17th
Torvik	36th	14th
EvanMiya	30th	18th

Team Leaders

	Miami	Louisville
Points	Malik Reneau (19.1)	Ryan Conwell (18.5)
Rebounds	Ernest Udeh (9.5)	Sananda Fru (6.3)
Assists	Tre Donaldson (5.9)	Mikel Brown Jr. (4.7)
Steals	Tru Washington (2.0)	Mikel Brown Jr. (1.2)
Blocks	Ernest Udeh (1.5)	Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

	Miami	Louisville
Points Per Game	82.5	85.7
Field Goal %	50.4	46.8
FGM/FGA Per Game	30.3/60.1	28.9/61.8
Three Point %	34.9	35.9
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	6.7/19.1	11.9/33.0
Free Throw %	67.6	77.5
FTM/FTA Per Game	15.2/22.4	15.9/20.6

Rebounding

	Miami	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	38.2	39.3
Off. Reb. Per Game	12.5	11.6
Def. Reb. Per Game	25.7	27.7
Rebound Margin	8.6	4.3

Defense

	Miami	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	70.0	71.9
Opp. FG%	43.6	41.8
Opp. 3PT%	35.0	32.3
Steals Per Game	8.0	7.1
Blocks Per Game	3.3	3.3
Turnovers Forced Per Game	13.0	12.0

Ball Handling

	Miami	Louisville
Assists Per Game	16.4	17.3
Turnovers Per Game	11.6	11.8
Turnover Margin	1.4	0.2
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.42	1.46

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 62.0 percent chance to win against the Hurricanes. Louisville has a BPI rating of 19.6 (11th overall), whereas Miami has a BPI rating of 13.5 (40th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 53 percent chance to take down the Hurricanes, with a projected final score of 79-78 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +26.05 (17th overall), whereas Miami has an adjusted efficiency margin of +21.20 (29th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 53 percent chance to take down the Canes, with a projected final score of 79-78 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9400 (14th overall), whereas Miami has a "Barthag" of .8860 (36th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Miami 81, Louisville 75.

(Photo of Khani Rooths: Matt Stone - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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