Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Clemson

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Tigers for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Nov 2, 2024; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Phil Mafah (7) runs against the Louisville Cardinals during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images | Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (7-2, 4-2 ACC) is set to face Clemson (4-5, 3-4 ACC) on Friday, Nov. 14 at 7:30 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Tigers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Clemson	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	19th/21st
CFP	NR	15th
SOS	65th	63rd
SOR	77th	26th
SP+	41st	26th
FPI	32nd	36th
Sagarin	24th	29th
Kelley Ford	29th	34th
CFB Graphs	68th	35th

Offensive Statistics

	Clemson	Louisville
Total Offense	51st (409.3)	58th (401.4)
Yards Per Play	43rd (6.04)	46th (6.02)
Scoring Offense	69th (27.9)	35th (32.9)
Passing Yards	14th (288.4)	48th (246.6)
Yards Per Completion	64th (11.91)	96th (10.77)
Rushing Yards	112th (120.9)	71st (154.9)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	103rd (3.83)	22nd (5.05)
First Downs Gained	71st (191)	84th (181)
3rd Down Con. %	101st (36.4)	69th (40.2)
4th Down Con. %	44th (61.5)	79th (50.0)
Red Zone Con. %	64th (85.7)	39th (89.3)
Turnovers Lost	87th (13)	98th (14)
Interceptions Thrown	42nd (6)	87th (8)
Fumbles Lost	111th (7)	92nd (6)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	46th (4.78)	68th (5.22)
Sacks Allowed	46th (1.56)	78th (2.00)
Avg. Time of Possession	48th (30:40)	51st (30:32)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Clemson	Louisville
Total Defense	53rd (351.3)	14th (296.8)
Yards Allowed Per Play	51st (5.23)	13th (4.62)
Scoring Defense	53rd (22.4)	41st (21.7)
Passing Yards Allowed	106th (245.1)	28th (188.1)
Rushing Yards Allowed	19th (106.2)	22nd (108.7)
First Downs Allowed	63rd (179)	10th (143)
3rd Down Def. %	19th (32.8)	26th (34.1)
4th Down Def. %	46th (50.0)	20th (38.9)
Red Zone Def. %	41st (80.8)	57th (83.3)
Turnovers Gained	86th (10)	18th (16)
Interceptions Caught	71st (6)	7th (12)
Fumbles Recovered	75th (4)	75th (4)
TFL Per Game	28th (6.6)	80th (5.2)
Sacks Per Game	14th (2.78)	60th (2.11)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Clemson	Louisville
Net Punting	46th (40.50)	126th (34.95)
Avg. Kickoff Return	69th (20.40)	28th (23.46)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	133rd (34.33)	44th (18.62)
Avg. Punt Return	102nd (5.92)	4th (21.55)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	4th (0.83)	24th (4.43)
Field Goal Attempts	11-13	17-20
PAT	30-30	31-32

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 54.9 percent chance to win against the Tigers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 8.5 (36th overall), whereas Clemson has an FPI rating of 9.0 (32nd overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have an 63.57 percent chance to take down the Tigers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 12.2 (26th overall), whereas Clemson has an SP+ rating of 8.8 (41st overall).

- Sagarin Prediction: Per Jeff Sagarin's ratings, the Cardinals have an 57 percent chance to defeat the Tigers. Louisville has a Sagarin rating of 79.84 (29th overall), whereas Clemson has a Sagarin rating of 20.95 (24th overall)

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 62 percent chance to defeat the Tigers. Louisville has a KFord rating of 9.9 (34th overall), whereas Clemson has a KFord rating of 10.3 (29th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have a 55.9 percent chance to take down the Tigers. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.129 (35th overall), Clemson has an EPA Margin rating of 0.007 (68th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 24, Clemson 21.

(Photo of Phil Mafah: Ken Ruinard - Imagn Images)

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