Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Nov 30, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Duke Watson (26) runs the ball during the third quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (7-4, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (5-6, 2-6 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 29 at 12:00 p.m. EST at L&M Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Kentucky	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	NR/NR
CFP	NR	NR
SOS	7th	51st
SOR	44th	39th
SP+	57th	37th
FPI	38th	44th
Sagarin	40th	37th
Kelley Ford	46th	40th
CFB Graphs	53rd	49th

Offensive Statistics

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Offense	87th (359.4)	68th (384.2)
Yards Per Play	100th (5.28)	45th (5.97)
Scoring Offense	82nd (25.1)	55th (29.2)
Passing Yards	83rd (211.2)	65th (230.3)
Yards Per Completion	98th (10.75)	109th (10.55)
Rushing Yards	77th (148.2)	71st (153.9)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	92nd (4.01)	26th (5.05)
First Downs Gained	67th (227)	94th (209)
3rd Down Con. %	42nd (43.1)	95th (37.2)
4th Down Con. %	70th (55.0)	106th (44.4)
Red Zone Con. %	111th (77.8)	24th (90.6)
Turnovers Lost	118th (20)	91st (16)
Interceptions Thrown	115th (12)	70th (9)
Fumbles Lost	109th (8)	97th (7)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	98th (5.82)	64th (5.27)
Sacks Allowed	86th (2.09)	82nd (2.00)
Avg. Time of Possession	34th (31:17)	70th (29:49)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Defense	66th (368.2)	24th (314.9)
Yards Allowed Per Play	68th 95.57)	22nd (4.84)
Scoring Defense	71st (25.1)	54th (23.0)
Passing Yards Allowed	106th (245.2)	39th (198.8)
Rushing Yards Allowed	33rd (123.0)	26th (116.1)
First Downs Allowed	65th (214)	23rd (190)
3rd Down Def. %	86th (40.7)	36th (34.8)
4th Down Def. %	23rd (42.9)	14th (39.1)
Red Zone Def. %	67th (84.2)	65th (83.9)
Turnovers Gained	59th (14)	34th (17)
Interceptions Caught	19th (12)	19th (12)
Fumbles Recovered	119th (2)	71st (5)
TFL Per Game	57th (5.7)	74th (5.4)
Sacks Per Game	53rd (2.18)	79th (1.91)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Kentucky	Louisville
Net Punting	63rd (39.73)	118th (36.45)
Avg. Kickoff Return	96th (18.75)	33rd (22.69)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	12th (16.25)	36th (18.29)
Avg. Punt Return	122nd (4.08)	4th (19.68)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	120th (13.60)	17th (4.11)
Field Goal Attempts	13-16	21-26
PAT	33-33	32-34

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 52.9 percent chance to win against the Wildcats. Louisville has an FPI rating of 6.8 (44th overall), whereas Kentucky has an FPI rating of 7.7 (38th overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 67 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 9.1 (37th overall), whereas Kentucky has an SP+ rating of 4.6 (57th overall).

- Sagarin Prediction: Per Jeff Sagarin's ratings, the Cardinals have an 56 percent chance to defeat the Wildcats. Louisville has a Sagarin rating of 37th (77.28 overall), whereas Kentucky has a Sagarin rating of 40th (76.74 overall)

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 66 percent chance to defeat the Wildcats. Louisville has a KFord rating of 8.0 (40th overall), whereas Kentucky has a KFord rating of 7.2 (46th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have a 55.1 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.071 (49th overall), whereas Kentucky has an EPA Margin rating of 0.058 (53rd overall).

- Personal Prediction: Kentucky 17, Louisville 14.

(Photo of Duke Watson: Jordan Prather - Imagn Images)

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